Key playoff games/scenario/guide

[TomCat88]

By my count there are 30 teams out there that can make the playoffs. Some of them are already locks, some are waiting on the outcomes of other games, while others need a lot of help. The key games are:

EWU at PSU (Fri.)
So. Utah at NAU
MSU at UM
Chas. Southern* at Georgia
Liberty* at Coastal Carolina
Richmond at William and Mary (loser is out)
Fla. A/M at Bethune-Cookman*
Missouri St. at No. Iowa
Ind. State at W. Illinois
So. Dakota at So. Dakota St.
YSU at NDSU
Wagner at Bryant*
Colgate at Bucknell*
UCA at SHSU
SE La. at Nichols St. (Thurs.)

*I'm doubting that any of these five teams get, but you never know. B-C beat FBS Fla. Int'l this year, so that might impress the panel. With the Richmond-William and Mary loser eliminated that would bring the teams left down to 25. I highly doubt that the MVFC would be given six teams and YSU needs to beat NDSU to make that happen, so that would make it 24.

Teams with a shot by conference:
BSC - EWU(in), MSU, UM, NAU. (MSU is in with a win or a EWU win, or a NAU loss; UM needs to beat MSU; NAU needs a EWU loss and a UM win, but will be on the bubble with a win)
Big South - Coastal(in), Liberty and Chas. Southern. (Liberty needs to beat Coastal to get on the bubble, Chas. So. has to beat Georgia. CS has little to no chance, but a Liberty win could impress the panel).
CAA - UNH(in), Villanova(in), JMU(in), William and Mary, Richmond. (Winner of W/M vs. Richmond is in; loser is out).
MEAC - NCAT, Bethune-Cookman. (NCAT in with a win; B-C gets on the bubble with a win)
MVFC - NDSU(in), Ill. State(in), No. Iowa, SDSU, Ind. State, YSU (No. Iowa in with a win; Ind. State in with a win; YSU in with win over NDSU; SDSU in with win and YSU loss).
NEC - Sacred Heart(in), Bryant. (Bryant on the bubble, maybe, with win over Wagner)
OVC - JSU(in), EKU(in)
Patriot - Fordham(in), Bucknell. (Bucknell on the bubble, maybe, with win).
Pioneer - San Diego(in).
SoCon - Chattanooga(in).
Southland - SE La., SHSU, SFA. (SE La. gets autobid with win; SHSU needs to beat UCA, SFA needs to beat NW State to get on the bubble).

[John K]

Just as a "heads up", the Selection Show is on ESPN-U on Sunday, at 9:00 MST.

[Cledus]

I was looking at the MVFC schedule for this week and it looks like they have three bubble teams that would make it in with a win this week. These bubble teams are favorites, but man oh man, if three underdogs in these games pull off the upset... The underdogs themselves have no shot of getting in, but it sure would make things interesting.

Basically, all the favorites are at 7-4 and every indication is that they'll get in with a win, but if they lose they will all be 7-5. It's hard to see any of them getting in with a loss since NDSU has the auto bid locked up. All of these games' underdogs are at 4-7, so they're not great but also not total chumps.

That sure opens up a lot of possibilities if three at large bids become available.

[[cat_bracket]]

TSN has Bryant and Bucknell both in ahead of SFA and NAU. I call BS on that. SFA will have seven FCS wins if they win this week and beat SE Louisiana. They lost to KState. NAU also would have seven FCS wins with win over EWU. I'd go with SFA ahead of NAU. Just can't see either Bryant or Bucknell getting ahead of SFA. We'll see. East coast bias?

[TomCat88]

TSN has Bryant and Bucknell both in ahead of SFA and NAU. I call BS on that. SFA will have seven FCS wins if they win this week and beat SE Louisiana. They lost to KState. NAU also would have seven FCS wins with win over EWU. I'd go with SFA ahead of NAU. Just can't see either Bryant or Bucknell getting ahead of SFA. We'll see. East coast bias?

Yes, I have a problem with that as well. I think they're looking at those teams as having eight DI wins. I think Bucknell beat a FBS team, so I can see that somewhat, but those conferences are so lightweight (they either have no scholarships or limited scholarships well below the 63 allowed) that I just don't see how they can give the eight wins, with a bulk coming from a conference with multiple gimmes, as much weight as they give seven wins from a conference like the Southland, BSC, CAA, SoCon, OVC or MVFC.

[grizzh8r]

TSN has Bryant and Bucknell both in ahead of SFA and NAU. I call BS on that. SFA will have seven FCS wins if they win this week and beat SE Louisiana. They lost to KState. NAU also would have seven FCS wins with win over EWU. I'd go with SFA ahead of NAU. Just can't see either Bryant or Bucknell getting ahead of SFA. We'll see. East coast bias?

Yes, I have a problem with that as well. I think they're looking at those teams as having eight DI wins. I think Bucknell beat a FBS team, so I can see that somewhat, but those conferences are so lightweight (they either have no scholarships or limited scholarships well below the 63 allowed) that I just don't see how they can give the eight wins, with a bulk coming from a conference with multiple gimmes, as much weight as they give seven wins from a conference like the Southland, BSC, CAA, SoCon, OVC or MVFC.

It's eerie how similar this discussion is to the Boise State, Northern Illinois discussion is at the FBS level... We all love the little guys, until it could affect our team! Just some food for thought.

[John K]

TSN has Bryant and Bucknell both in ahead of SFA and NAU. I call BS on that. SFA will have seven FCS wins if they win this week and beat SE Louisiana. They lost to KState. NAU also would have seven FCS wins with win over EWU. I'd go with SFA ahead of NAU. Just can't see either Bryant or Bucknell getting ahead of SFA. We'll see. East coast bias?

Yes, I have a problem with that as well. I think they're looking at those teams as having eight DI wins. I think Bucknell beat a FBS team, so I can see that somewhat, but those conferences are so lightweight (they either have no scholarships or limited scholarships well below the 63 allowed) that I just don't see how they can give the eight wins, with a bulk coming from a conference with multiple gimmes, as much weight as they give seven wins from a conference like the Southland, BSC, CAA, SoCon, OVC or MVFC.

It's eerie how similar this discussion is to the Boise State, Northern Illinois discussion is at the FBS level... We all love the little guys, until it could affect our team! Just some food for thought.

But one of the key differences is that in FCS, at the very least, the lower tier conferences are guaranteed of getting one team into the playoffs, even if they don't receive any additional at large berths. In the FBS, even now with the 4-team playoff, conferences like the MAC and the MWC are never going to get a seat at the table, at least not until they eventually expand it to 8 teams (which is inevitable), and even then it will be very rare. That's why I believe FBS should ultimately go to 16 teams. Then every conference can be represented, while still leaving 6 spots for at large teams from the Big 5.

[TomCat88]

Coastal leads Liberty at half 14-6.
Georgia 55, Chas. So. 3
Florida AM 0, Bethune-Cookman 0 2nd quarter
Western Ill. 7, Indiana St. 0
Wagner 23, Bryant 20 Final (Bryant probably eliminated)
Colgate 7, Bucknell 6 3rd quarter
UCA 21, SHSU 21 1:29 left in half.

[91catAlum]

UCA and SHSU tied at 21 late 2nd qtr.

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Tapatalk

[TomCat88]

Coastal 14, Liberty 12 4th quarter (Liberty out with loss)
Georgia 55, Chas. So. 3 (Chas. So. out)
Florida AM 0, Bethune-Cookman 0 2nd quarter (B-C out with loss)
Western Ill. 7, Indiana St. 3 2nd quarter (ISU out with loss)
SDSU 14, USD 0 1st quarter
Wagner 23, Bryant 20 Final (Bryant probably eliminated)
Colgate 21, Bucknell 6 4th quarter (Bucknell out with loss)
SHSU 24, UCA 21 half. (SHSU out with loss)

It's 1:25 PM and I'm out until 3:00. Someone else can pick this up.

[Cledus]

Coastal 14, Liberty 12 4th quarter (Liberty out with loss)
Georgia 55, Chas. So. 3 (Chas. So. out)
Florida AM 0, Bethune-Cookman 0 2nd quarter (B-C out with loss)
Western Ill. 7, Indiana St. 3 2nd quarter (ISU out with loss)
SDSU 14, USD 0 1st quarter
Wagner 23, Bryant 20 Final (Bryant probably eliminated)
Colgate 21, Bucknell 6 4th quarter (Bucknell out with loss)
SHSU 24, UCA 21 half. (SHSU out with loss)

It's 1:25 PM and I'm out until 3:00. Someone else can pick this up.

Western Illinois is now up 14-3 at the half. The other MVFC bubble teams seem to be taking care of business.

[Cat Grad]

Liberty 15-Coastal Carolina 14

[Cat Grad]

Jarheads 20 - Indiana State 12 with 2:58 in the third.

[CPrice91]

Alright TomCat - blowout loss to the Griz. MSU still in?

[TomCat88]

Alright TomCat - blowout loss to the Griz. MSU still in?

Doesn't look good. The Liberty win hurts. The MVFC is down to four teams with Ind. State and YSU losing. The SHSU win hurts. Bucknell loss helps. B-C win hurts as does SC State. NAU losing helps. Bryant losing helps. Lamar win hurts bad. I didn't even have that game on the list.

I'll have to take a longer look tonight when I'm feeling better.

At-large. Right now I got three from CAA, three from MVFC and three from Southland. (Lamar looks like it'll get in with win over McNeese.) That hurts MSU. I got Liberty going. That's 10 right there. UM goes, that's 11. One from the OVC. That leaves B-C, SC State and MSU for the last spot. I think we're cooked.

[Cat Grad]

Alright TomCat - blowout loss to the Griz. MSU still in?

Doesn't look good. The Liberty win hurts. The MVFC is down to four teams with Ind. State and YSU losing. The SHSU win hurts. Bucknell loss helps. B-C win hurts as does SC State. NAU losing helps. Bryant losing helps. Lamar win hurts bad. I didn't even have that game on the list.

I'll have to take a longer look tonight when I'm feeling better.

At-large. Right now I got three from CAA, three from MVFC and three from Southland. (Lamar looks like it'll get in with win over McNeese.) That hurts MSU. I got Liberty going. That's 10 right there. UM goes, that's 11. One from the OVC. That leaves B-C, SC State and MSU for the last spot. I think we're cooked.

Bid probably gets MSU one game. Then, I'm going to call Kruger Helicopters and do a little skiing...

[Cat Grad]

Seriously, after last year who in their right mind would consider more than one conference school?

[TomCat88]

Alright TomCat - blowout loss to the Griz. MSU still in?

Doesn't look good. The Liberty win hurts. The MVFC is down to four teams with Ind. State and YSU losing. The SHSU win hurts. Bucknell loss helps. B-C win hurts as does SC State. NAU losing helps. Bryant losing helps. Lamar win hurts bad. I didn't even have that game on the list.

I'll have to take a longer look tonight when I'm feeling better.

At-large. Right now I got three from CAA, three from MVFC and three from Southland. (Lamar looks like it'll get in with win over McNeese.) That hurts MSU. I got Liberty going. That's 10 right there. UM goes, that's 11. One from the OVC. That leaves B-C, SC State and MSU for the last spot. I think we're cooked.

Looks like there's still hope. By my count there are three spots up in the air. MSU has as good a shot as any other bubble team to get one. Teams on the bubble are SFA, Bethune, NCAT, MSU, maybe a couple others, but those four are the most likely to get the three spots. MSU has a good common opponent edge on SFA by beating UCA, which SFA lost to. There's still hope.