Prodigal Cat wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:04 am
MSU01 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2024 7:08 am
I answered my own question on how the First Four matchups are determined. The two games are #65 vs #66 and #67 vs #68 on the overall seed list. Will be interesting to follow the MEAC and SWAC tournaments today and tomorrow to see who wins those and if there are upsets.
I'm trying to figure this out but to me it really looks like there isn't a scenario left that would move the Cats out of the play-in game? Most of the lower ranked conference tournaments are finished and those 2 conferences are already predicted be play-in games no matter the champion?
It seems to me that there are currently five legitimate candidates to be in the First Four. Ranked in order from most likely to be a First Four team (in my judgment) to least likely, these are:
Wagner (16-15 Record, NET 289)
SWAC Champion - #1 seed is Grambling (18-14 Record, NET 288)
MSU (17-17 Record, NET 209)
MEAC Champion - #1 seed is Norfolk State (22-10 Record, NET 210)
Stetson (22-12 Record, NET 207)
My guess here would be that the First Four teams will very likely be Wagner, the SWAC champion, MSU, and either the MEAC champion or Stetson. Three of the teams including MSU are extremely close in the NET rankings but I think MSU will be hurt by its significantly worse overall record compared to Stetson and Norfolk State if they win the MEAC.
Aside from the MEAC and SWAC champions, the only two teams I could find who are still alive in their conference tournaments and could be in the First Four if they win are Middle Tennessee in Conference USA (14-18 record, NET 285) and Brown in the Ivy League (12-17 record, NET 192). If either of those teams win their tournament, then perhaps they would go into the First Four and MSU would have a better chance of being a non-First Four 16 seed.