Stat needing most improvement

Discuss anything and everything relating to Bobcat Football here.

Moderators: rtb, kmax, SonomaCat

The MICKSTER
BobcatNation Team Captain
Posts: 507
Joined: Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:55 pm

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by The MICKSTER » Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:12 pm

Cledus wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:41 pm
The MICKSTER wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:54 am
Here are some of the CATS conference-only stats from 2018;
• Scoring Offense….6th……29.8
• Scoring Defense…3rd……26.5
• Total Offense…….11th….380
• Total Defense…….5th…..405
• Rushing Offense..3rd…..258 behind CP & EWU
• Rushing Defense..4th…..194
• Pass Offense……..12th.…122
• Pass Defense……...8th.…211
• Pass Efficiency….13th….106
• Interceptions……..5th…..14
• Sacks by ……..…T 6th…….15
• 1st Downs………..10th.….146
• Opp 1st Downs.…8th…...174
• 3rd D conv…….…10th……36%
• Opp 3rd D conv..11th…..47%
• Time of Poss…....8th…….28:07

Which one would you like to see improve the most???? :-k

I'm thinking TOP because that means we're most likely improving in several other stats as well, but Pass Efficiency is a close runner-up....13th OUCH #-o
There is no correlation between winning and TOP, at all. I don't know why people continue to worship at this altar that has been debunked and thoroughly discredited. Holding on to the ball for long periods of time doesn't guarantee you'll finish the drive and get into the end zone, which is the objective.

TOP also can't tell the difference between teams' tempo of play. Two different teams could have the same TOP, but one team runs 55 plays in a game and the other could have 75 plays in a game.

Having said that, I'd like to see improvement of our defensive line strength. There's no one stat for defensive line strength that I'm aware but I feel like there are a few other stats that are indicators of defensive line strength, such as sacks, opponents' yard per carry, and opponents' 3rd down conversion %.
I will agree with you in that TOP for football teams IN GENERAL is not a good indicator of who will/did win a game. For example the worst team in the BSC last year in TOP was UCD (26:12) who tied for the BSC championship, was 2nd in Total Offense & Scoring Offense, and made it to the quarterfinals before losing to EWU.

UCD passed the ball 585 times for 4200 yards vs running the ball 447 times for 2160 yards. On the other hand we passed the ball only 285 times for just 1830 yards vs running the ball 545 times for 3010 yards. Now this year I expect/hope the # of pass plays vs run plays get closer but let's face it....we ain't goin' to be chuckin' downfield 500+ times this year. UCD will win games while possessing the ball 8 minutes less than their opponents, we will not.

My point being, that the 2019 Bobcats under Coach Choate aren't built to win more games without improving their TOP, IMHO.



User avatar
codecat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2206
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2009 1:38 pm
Location: Laurel

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by codecat » Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:13 pm

VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm
Cledus wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm
For me its offensive passing efficiency. What is passing efficiency? It's kind of a five-stat formula that includes yards per attempt, completions per attempt, average per completion, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The fact that MSU had the least efficient passing offense and was still able to run the ball near the top of the league meant they had some pretty good athletes in the backfield (truth) and a very good offensive line. It means defenses knew we couldn't throw the ball effectively so they keyed on the run game...and MSU still had success. Obviously, Weber State shut down the offense the best of any opponent (including NDSU) but the vast majority of MSU's opponents struggled. Overall, this is what poster's are talking about when they say "all we need is average play from our QB when throwing the ball". If MSU can at least be middle of the pack in offensive passing efficiency, the offense is going to be very hard to slow down...because the run game will be that much more dangerous and the offense will be better as a whole.
I studied this in detail some years ago. At a glance, it seems like some hard core stuff that can only be done by computers. But when you isolate the components you realize it's not really complicated and you can begin to see and understand how it's calculated and how it's influenced.

It didn't take me long to realize passer rating is really just a nerded up yards per attempt. The two most important things that move the passer rating are yards thrown and the number of throws. The number of throws is what causes the passer rating to move, simply because that's the denominator. Even if you try to take the other components to extremes (like TD's and interceptions) they barely move the needle compared to the number of throws.
Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
I had to choose 2 - initially choosing 3rd down conversion rate for offense and opponents 3rd down conversion rate for defense, but came to the same conclusion you stated above - that a good part of the offense's woes of 3rd down conversion rate will be mitigated by not being so one dimensional. Thanks for the explanation of all that goes into the Passing Efficiency calculation.


What is pro Human Rights about assisting the Cartels in promoting drug, human, and gang trafficking?

User avatar
VimSince03
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6865
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:43 pm

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by VimSince03 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:20 pm

codecat wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:13 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm
Cledus wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm
For me its offensive passing efficiency. What is passing efficiency? It's kind of a five-stat formula that includes yards per attempt, completions per attempt, average per completion, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The fact that MSU had the least efficient passing offense and was still able to run the ball near the top of the league meant they had some pretty good athletes in the backfield (truth) and a very good offensive line. It means defenses knew we couldn't throw the ball effectively so they keyed on the run game...and MSU still had success. Obviously, Weber State shut down the offense the best of any opponent (including NDSU) but the vast majority of MSU's opponents struggled. Overall, this is what poster's are talking about when they say "all we need is average play from our QB when throwing the ball". If MSU can at least be middle of the pack in offensive passing efficiency, the offense is going to be very hard to slow down...because the run game will be that much more dangerous and the offense will be better as a whole.
I studied this in detail some years ago. At a glance, it seems like some hard core stuff that can only be done by computers. But when you isolate the components you realize it's not really complicated and you can begin to see and understand how it's calculated and how it's influenced.

It didn't take me long to realize passer rating is really just a nerded up yards per attempt. The two most important things that move the passer rating are yards thrown and the number of throws. The number of throws is what causes the passer rating to move, simply because that's the denominator. Even if you try to take the other components to extremes (like TD's and interceptions) they barely move the needle compared to the number of throws.
Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
I had to choose 2 - initially choosing 3rd down conversion rate for offense and opponents 3rd down conversion rate for defense, but came to the same conclusion you stated above - that a good part of the offense's woes of 3rd down conversion rate will be mitigated by not being so one dimensional. Thanks for the explanation of all that goes into the Passing Efficiency calculation.
And I'm absolutely fine with the offense run/pass ratio being at 70/30 as long as that 30% is efficient when necessary.


"There's two times of year for me: Football season, and waiting for football season."

User avatar
Montanabob
2nd Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1062
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2012 8:29 pm
Location: Two Dot

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by Montanabob » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:04 pm

Number of Home playoff games 4. Bye week 1. Week six Frisco.
That's the stat I want to see


MSU fan.... U of I Graduate... They're Back

User avatar
Cledus
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4091
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:18 pm
Location: Billings Heights

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by Cledus » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:06 pm

VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm

Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
This jogged my memory on something fans and sports web sites never mention, but is widely tracked and monitored among coaches. Ash actually mentioned it several times, as I recall. It is "schedule." It refers to the amount of yards you need to gain on each down, which kind of dovetails nicely on efficiency.

You always need 50% of the yards to go on first down, 70% on second down. Third and fourth downs are obviously 100%. If you're on schedule you'll usually end up a lot of third down conversions and keep your drives going. I'll have to look into this again.

This is where our front four can really make a name for themselves, by keeping the other team off balance and off schedule. In other words, getting stops on first and second downs, and then making the other team earn their conversions. I think this has a cumulative effect. The other team might make the occasional long conversion and that's not something we'll always be able to stop. But you want the other guys playing with a deck that you've stacked in your favor.

As far as our own offense, this is obviously where being one-dimensional has really held us back.



User avatar
catsrback76
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 7014
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:18 am
Location: 2300 meters up in Ethiopia!

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by catsrback76 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:08 pm

I agree with Vim on the passing efficiency rating needing to improve. I love the run game so much that I want to see the passing game improve so that the run game to go to the next level!

That said, 3rd down stops on the D side need to go up! We've done a nice job of keeping opposing teams (except NDSU) to manageable 3rd downs and distance...but have given up way too many conversions. Both of those stats when improved will win us the BSC and make us a team to be feared in the playoffs!



User avatar
technoCat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2765
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2007 5:06 pm
Location: Bozeman

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by technoCat » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:05 am

Cledus wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:06 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm

Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
This jogged my memory on something fans and sports web sites never mention, but is widely tracked and monitored among coaches. Ash actually mentioned it several times, as I recall. It is "schedule." It refers to the amount of yards you need to gain on each down, which kind of dovetails nicely on efficiency.

You always need 50% of the yards to go on first down, 70% on second down. Third and fourth downs are obviously 100%. If you're on schedule you'll usually end up a lot of third down conversions and keep your drives going. I'll have to look into this again.

This is where our front four can really make a name for themselves, by keeping the other team off balance and off schedule. In other words, getting stops on first and second downs, and then making the other team earn their conversions. I think this has a cumulative effect. The other team might make the occasional long conversion and that's not something we'll always be able to stop. But you want the other guys playing with a deck that you've stacked in your favor.

As far as our own offense, this is obviously where being one-dimensional has really held us back.
As Catrback stated above, we were usually really good on 1st and 2nd down on keeping opposing offenses "off-schedule". Look at the Griz game last year for example. Hold them to 3rd and 20 and give it up, every... single... time... Or at least it felt that way. Maybe with a healthy lb core that doesn't happen but we have to get much better.


DIE HARD CATS FAN SINCE 01/05/1984

catscat
2nd Team All-BobcatNation
Posts: 1262
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2011 4:13 pm

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by catscat » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:22 am

technoCat wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:05 am
Cledus wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:06 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm

Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
This jogged my memory on something fans and sports web sites never mention, but is widely tracked and monitored among coaches. Ash actually mentioned it several times, as I recall. It is "schedule." It refers to the amount of yards you need to gain on each down, which kind of dovetails nicely on efficiency.

You always need 50% of the yards to go on first down, 70% on second down. Third and fourth downs are obviously 100%. If you're on schedule you'll usually end up a lot of third down conversions and keep your drives going. I'll have to look into this again.

This is where our front four can really make a name for themselves, by keeping the other team off balance and off schedule. In other words, getting stops on first and second downs, and then making the other team earn their conversions. I think this has a cumulative effect. The other team might make the occasional long conversion and that's not something we'll always be able to stop. But you want the other guys playing with a deck that you've stacked in your favor.

As far as our own offense, this is obviously where being one-dimensional has really held us back.
As Catrback stated above, we were usually really good on 1st and 2nd down on keeping opposing offenses "off-schedule". Look at the Griz game last year for example. Hold them to 3rd and 20 and give it up, every... single... time... Or at least it felt that way. Maybe with a healthy lb core that doesn't happen but we have to get much better.
This was something I could never figure out. We'd hold an opposing team to 2 yards (or even negative yardage) on the first two downs only to give up 8, 12, 15, or 20 on third down. Why couldn't we run the same defense on third down that had shut down the offense on first and second downs? Based on Coach Choate's frustration with the same thing, I believe we will see many more third down stops this year.



User avatar
Cledus
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4091
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:18 pm
Location: Billings Heights

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by Cledus » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:34 am

catscat wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:22 am
technoCat wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:05 am
Cledus wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:06 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm

Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
This jogged my memory on something fans and sports web sites never mention, but is widely tracked and monitored among coaches. Ash actually mentioned it several times, as I recall. It is "schedule." It refers to the amount of yards you need to gain on each down, which kind of dovetails nicely on efficiency.

You always need 50% of the yards to go on first down, 70% on second down. Third and fourth downs are obviously 100%. If you're on schedule you'll usually end up a lot of third down conversions and keep your drives going. I'll have to look into this again.

This is where our front four can really make a name for themselves, by keeping the other team off balance and off schedule. In other words, getting stops on first and second downs, and then making the other team earn their conversions. I think this has a cumulative effect. The other team might make the occasional long conversion and that's not something we'll always be able to stop. But you want the other guys playing with a deck that you've stacked in your favor.

As far as our own offense, this is obviously where being one-dimensional has really held us back.
As Catrback stated above, we were usually really good on 1st and 2nd down on keeping opposing offenses "off-schedule". Look at the Griz game last year for example. Hold them to 3rd and 20 and give it up, every... single... time... Or at least it felt that way. Maybe with a healthy lb core that doesn't happen but we have to get much better.
This was something I could never figure out. We'd hold an opposing team to 2 yards (or even negative yardage) on the first two downs only to give up 8, 12, 15, or 20 on third down. Why couldn't we run the same defense on third down that had shut down the offense on first and second downs? Based on Coach Choate's frustration with the same thing, I believe we will see many more third down stops this year.
I'm not a scheme guy and don't really know much about that aspect of the game, but I'm thinking we get in that position and play some kind of lazy zone where the QB's and receivers are good hitting the zone's blind spots.

That, and the bend-but-don't-break philosophy drives me crazy. We think everything will be fine if the other team needs 15 yards and we hold them to 12, but then the other receiver breaks one tackle or makes one nice juke and gets enough to move the chain. Other teams have athletes and playmakers, too.

If you're going to give up 15 yards, I don't see the wisdom in spotting them 12 and then assuming everything else will work out the way you want.



User avatar
codecat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2206
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2009 1:38 pm
Location: Laurel

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by codecat » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:44 am

Cledus wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:34 am
catscat wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:22 am
technoCat wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:05 am
Cledus wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:06 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm

Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
This jogged my memory on something fans and sports web sites never mention, but is widely tracked and monitored among coaches. Ash actually mentioned it several times, as I recall. It is "schedule." It refers to the amount of yards you need to gain on each down, which kind of dovetails nicely on efficiency.

You always need 50% of the yards to go on first down, 70% on second down. Third and fourth downs are obviously 100%. If you're on schedule you'll usually end up a lot of third down conversions and keep your drives going. I'll have to look into this again.

This is where our front four can really make a name for themselves, by keeping the other team off balance and off schedule. In other words, getting stops on first and second downs, and then making the other team earn their conversions. I think this has a cumulative effect. The other team might make the occasional long conversion and that's not something we'll always be able to stop. But you want the other guys playing with a deck that you've stacked in your favor.

As far as our own offense, this is obviously where being one-dimensional has really held us back.
As Catrback stated above, we were usually really good on 1st and 2nd down on keeping opposing offenses "off-schedule". Look at the Griz game last year for example. Hold them to 3rd and 20 and give it up, every... single... time... Or at least it felt that way. Maybe with a healthy lb core that doesn't happen but we have to get much better.
This was something I could never figure out. We'd hold an opposing team to 2 yards (or even negative yardage) on the first two downs only to give up 8, 12, 15, or 20 on third down. Why couldn't we run the same defense on third down that had shut down the offense on first and second downs? Based on Coach Choate's frustration with the same thing, I believe we will see many more third down stops this year.
I'm not a scheme guy and don't really know much about that aspect of the game, but I'm thinking we get in that position and play some kind of lazy zone where the QB's and receivers are good hitting the zone's blind spots.

That, and the bend-but-don't-break philosophy drives me crazy. We think everything will be fine if the other team needs 15 yards and we hold them to 12, but then the other receiver breaks one tackle or makes one nice juke and gets enough to move the chain. Other teams have athletes and playmakers, too.

If you're going to give up 15 yards, I don't see the wisdom in spotting them 12 and then assuming everything else will work out the way you want.
I'm note a scheme guy either and probably know less about defensive football than most but what you guys have said rings true with me too, and the two game i remember it happening the most were WSU and um. The only thing i noticed is that our LG group was ineffectively slow last year against the pass at times.


What is pro Human Rights about assisting the Cartels in promoting drug, human, and gang trafficking?

User avatar
VimSince03
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 6865
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:43 pm

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by VimSince03 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:40 pm

VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:20 pm
codecat wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:13 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm
Cledus wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm
VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm
For me its offensive passing efficiency. What is passing efficiency? It's kind of a five-stat formula that includes yards per attempt, completions per attempt, average per completion, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The fact that MSU had the least efficient passing offense and was still able to run the ball near the top of the league meant they had some pretty good athletes in the backfield (truth) and a very good offensive line. It means defenses knew we couldn't throw the ball effectively so they keyed on the run game...and MSU still had success. Obviously, Weber State shut down the offense the best of any opponent (including NDSU) but the vast majority of MSU's opponents struggled. Overall, this is what poster's are talking about when they say "all we need is average play from our QB when throwing the ball". If MSU can at least be middle of the pack in offensive passing efficiency, the offense is going to be very hard to slow down...because the run game will be that much more dangerous and the offense will be better as a whole.
I studied this in detail some years ago. At a glance, it seems like some hard core stuff that can only be done by computers. But when you isolate the components you realize it's not really complicated and you can begin to see and understand how it's calculated and how it's influenced.

It didn't take me long to realize passer rating is really just a nerded up yards per attempt. The two most important things that move the passer rating are yards thrown and the number of throws. The number of throws is what causes the passer rating to move, simply because that's the denominator. Even if you try to take the other components to extremes (like TD's and interceptions) they barely move the needle compared to the number of throws.
Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
I had to choose 2 - initially choosing 3rd down conversion rate for offense and opponents 3rd down conversion rate for defense, but came to the same conclusion you stated above - that a good part of the offense's woes of 3rd down conversion rate will be mitigated by not being so one dimensional. Thanks for the explanation of all that goes into the Passing Efficiency calculation.
And I'm absolutely fine with the offense run/pass ratio being at 70/30 as long as that 30% is efficient when necessary.
So about that passing efficiency improvement....

TBD still.


"There's two times of year for me: Football season, and waiting for football season."

Phat Daddy
BobcatNation Redshirt
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:58 pm

Re: Stat needing most improvement

Post by Phat Daddy » Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:17 pm

VimSince03 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:20 pm

And I'm absolutely fine with the offense run/pass ratio being at 70/30 as long as that 30% is efficient when necessary.
I completely agree. If the QB is 14-32 overall in the game, but 9-11 on 3rd down attempts, I'd bet the team fares well. It's similar to the 65% free throw shooter that is 92% in the 4th quarter. While you'd prefer they be more accurate all game, you'll live with it because they are accurate when it matters.



Post Reply