Path to the Playoffs

[GoldstoneCat]

That’s all good stuff. Great breakdown of where we sit right now.

As far as the debate on if 7-4 would be playoff worthy or not, I think it all would depend on HOW those other 3 losses happen.
If 2 or 3 of them are anything near the SDSU loss then it’s easy, the Cats won’t be in with that.

If they happen to lose to EWU, Weber and um ( ) all by a FG or a single TD, then they’d have a strong case for the playoffs still. Especially since 2 of those 3 would be on the road.
The playoff committee seems to take all of that into consideration, it’s not purely win/loss records.

With that being said, it can’t be overstated on how big this weekend is, a win puts them on the inside track to the playoffs. A close loss isn’t the end of the world and they still have everything in front of them. They just can’t get run out of the building on their own field.

I'll just add to your thoughts on 7-4: It'll also require some help both inside and outside our conference. If that were to be the case with our record, we'd still have to finish somewhere in the top 4, or the volume of teams will start to work against us. We'll need the MVFC and Southland to have a bunch of 6-5 teams in them also. Not impossible, but it'd bode much better to get to 8 wins. I feel very confident we'd be in with 8 wins in our schedule.

UNC has played very well against quality competition. It’s just a matter of time before they catch some team sleeping and smack them. Hopefully it’s not us.

Good point, we've assumed wins against all in that group but there's no reason we have to beat them all. Could also envision getting into a chippy defensive struggle in pocatello and having that go sideways. Say that happens, and you beat weber and um. Different looking 7-4 then. Fun to speculate, almost too many scenarios to even fathom at this point.

[DriscollCat]

That’s all good stuff. Great breakdown of where we sit right now.

As far as the debate on if 7-4 would be playoff worthy or not, I think it all would depend on HOW those other 3 losses happen.
If 2 or 3 of them are anything near the SDSU loss then it’s easy, the Cats won’t be in with that.

If they happen to lose to EWU, Weber and um ( ) all by a FG or a single TD, then they’d have a strong case for the playoffs still. Especially since 2 of those 3 would be on the road.
The playoff committee seems to take all of that into consideration, it’s not purely win/loss records.

With that being said, it can’t be overstated on how big this weekend is, a win puts them on the inside track to the playoffs. A close loss isn’t the end of the world and they still have everything in front of them. They just can’t get run out of the building on their own field.

I'll just add to your thoughts on 7-4: It'll also require some help both inside and outside our conference. If that were to be the case with our record, we'd still have to finish somewhere in the top 4, or the volume of teams will start to work against us. We'll need the MVFC and Southland to have a bunch of 6-5 teams in them also. Not impossible, but it'd bode much better to get to 8 wins. I feel very confident we'd be in with 8 wins in our schedule.

UNC has played very well against quality competition. It’s just a matter of time before they catch some team sleeping and smack them. Hopefully it’s not us.

Good point, we've assumed wins against all in that group but there's no reason we have to beat them all. Could also envision getting into a chippy defensive struggle in pocatello and having that go sideways. Say that happens, and you beat weber and um. Different looking 7-4 then. Fun to speculate, almost too many scenarios to even fathom at this point.

For sure. There always seem to be some surprises in the BSC!

[Catprint]

Week 6 (took the bye on week 5!) 10/8/18

Reminder: This thread is NOT discussing how good or bad the Cats are on the field or what the coaches are doing right or wrong. Plenty of threads for those invigorating discussions. What we are doing is looking at how the Cats can make the playoffs with the basic assumption there are still losses ahead and hardly anyone will win out (Maybe EWU).

This week we want to look at the wild Big Sky and how it stands for playoff teams. Things are NOT shaping up like predicted that is for sure. What I want to do is look at the teams in three groupings – Who looks like they are in at this point and flying high; who is unknown and got work to do and who is going to be looking outside in come playoff time. Let’s start with the Outies:

Out
• Southern Utah – Last year champs already have 5 losses. How fast the mighty have fallen
• Northern Colo – Six losses. Looking to be spoilers as they have lost some close games
• Portland State – Beat the Griz but still sitting with 4 losses and a NAIA win.
• Cal Poly – Four losses and no hope of winning out
• Sac State – Technically not out but has to win every game to get 7 DI wins. Not!

In
• Eastern Washington - #4 ranking and averaging 45 points. Steamroller so far.
• UC Davis – 4-1 and #14 but schedule looks brutal (ISU, UM, NAU, EWU still left)
• Idaho State – 4-1 and lighting it up. 8 touchdowns! Look out Bobcats

Unknown
• UM – 4-2 but PSU games makes them look mighty vulnerable.
• Weber – Took a beating in the NAU cherry turnover bowl. Weber has no offense – last in the Sky (right after the Cats!)
• NAU – 3 losses so no room for error. But still a sliver of hope
• Idaho – Technically still alive but on life support

Ok, so at this point, 3 are in; 4 looking to get in. Big Sky will get NO more than 5 and likely only 4 invites. Five will happen if other conferences beat themselves up similarly to Big Sky. So far MVFC is a mess but CAA looks strong. We will look at other conferences next week and what needs to happen. For now, the Idaho game is a MUST WIN for the CATS and needs to be a strong one. In the eyes of the polls, we are sitting 33 with only 50 votes at 3-2 (#22 in college madness poll but I think that is madness) while Weber with the same record is #13. The rule of thumb: Start high, slide slow, stay in the committee’s eyes! MSU is at HUGE disadvantage if we end up in a group with 3 or 4 other teams. There will be some shake outs this week with ISU @ UCD and EWU @ Weber. Thread stays alive until we reach 5 losses! Go Cats!

DATE...........GAME........Result Needed.................................Record........Comment/Actual Result
Week 1.........WIU..........Win at Home......................................1-0.........Won a close one
Week 2.........SDSU.........Loss is ok but not a blowout...................1-1…..…….Blowout Loss. Hope the committee doesn’t remember to look at game film this far back in the season!
Week 3.........Wagner.......Strong win........................................2-1…………Got the strong win!
Week 4.........PSU...........Win – stronger is better.........................3-1………..Run with the wind
Week 5.........EWU..........Loss - We have to win 1 of 2-UI or EW........3-2........Well held EWU to 11 points under average... hmmm.
Week 6.........OPEN
Week 7 .........UI.............Win – Need Strong Win-IU looks like Patsy...4-2
Week 8.........Weber........Win this or UM – loss here.......................4-3
Week 9.........ISU............Win..................................................5-3
Week 10.......Cal Poly.......Big Win.............................................6-3
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win..............................................7-3
Week 12.......UM.............Win..................................................8-3

[GoldstoneCat]

I think things have changed a little bit regarding the next 3 games and what we need from them, by way of where we get wins. We need this one this week, always have. The game at weber looks gettable with their offensive struggles, could be a tight low scoring affair to be won in the 4th. Idaho state is suddenly no gimme. That's a scary game for us because of the way they've been scoring. So let's say 2-1 happens the next 3, either way you want to get there. That puts us firmly on track, because i think we'll beat poly and unc in our own stadium. So, you'll then have a chance to be 8-3 and locked by winning at um. Lose 2 of next 3, need to beat um to get to 7-4, that's probably not enough depending on their remaining results. Win the next 5 going into UM, that game becomes moot for playoffs probably.

[91catAlum]

I wouldn't put Idaho state in the "IN" category just yet, but they're certainly headed in that direction. They do look pretty good, though, at least offensively. Which makes that game on the road much more difficult for the Cats now. So I agree with your assessment that this week's game vs Idaho is a must-win.

If we can steal one on the road at Weber, then we're looking very good. If not, we have to beat um or Idaho state.

[tetoncat]

I am curious why you think #22 in college madness pool is madness. We have same record as several ranked teams with loses to top 5 teams. We do need to move up and potential is there if we win next two. But should be higher already.

[onceacat]

I wouldn't put Idaho state in the "IN" category just yet, but they're certainly headed in that direction. They do look pretty good, though, at least offensively. Which makes that game on the road much more difficult for the Cats now. So I agree with your assessment that this week's game vs Idaho is a must-win.

If we can steal one on the road at Weber, then we're looking very good. If not, we have to beat um or Idaho state.

I’m with you on this one. Idaho State has beat a bunch of mid tier teams, but doesnt have an impressive win yet. I’d put them as the first team in the 2nd tier. They’ve got a pretty tough stretch to finish the season...possible losses against WSU & Davis means that a 50-50 game against MSU might decide which one stays playoff eligible.

[Mtcatfan]

Win 8 - in.
Win 7 - out.

[91catAlum]

Win 8 - in.
Win 7 - out.

8 - in
7 - on the bubble. In, if those 7 wins includes a couple ranked teams.

[onceacat]

Win 8 - in.
Win 7 - out.

8 - in
7 - on the bubble. In, if those 7 wins includes a couple ranked teams.

In theory, all 4 losses would be to playoff teams...EWU, SDSU, and 2 of WSU, ISU, and UM. But whichever team we beat is probably out of the playfff, so not very likely to be ranked. I’m thinking we can only afford to lose one.

[Darth Yoda]

We're into week 7 and we still have hope. That's a good thing. If we beat Idaho soundly, and I think we can, we have a lot of hope. Seeing Weber and dUMb look inept and mistake prone really helps the analysis for our path, and as of today both those games are winnable. ISU usually stumbles as the season goes on, so let's hope they already peaked. A possibility exists we steal a game at Weber, but then lose to ISU or NCU and be in the same situation coming into Cat/fuzz (i.e. win or stay home...).

[Montanabob]

8 wins or no playoff.
no discussion required.

[Darth Yoda]

8 wins or no playoff.
no discussion required.

I suspect 9 wins gets us in. Who are the 8 wins? Perhaps a small discussion is needed?

[DriscollCat]

8 wins or no playoff.
no discussion required.

I suspect 9 wins gets us in. Who are the 8 wins? Perhaps a small discussion is needed?

8 wins means that we only lose one more. Since we have two currently ranked teams left on our schedule, and one which should be ranked and might be by season's end (ISU), we should have a minimum of 1 ranked win if we only lose 1 more game.

Edit: To be fair, the griz probably shouldn't currently be ranked.

[BleedingBLue]

8 wins or no playoff.
no discussion required.

I suspect 9 wins gets us in. Who are the 8 wins? Perhaps a small discussion is needed?

8 wins means that we only lose one more. Since we have two currently ranked teams left on our schedule, and one which should be ranked and might be by season's end (ISU), we should have a minimum of 1 ranked win if we only lose 1 more game.

Edit: To be fair, the griz probably shouldn't currently be ranked.

A BSC team with 8 D1 wins is in. No discussion needed.

[Catprint]

I am curious why you think #22 in college madness pool is madness. We have same record as several ranked teams with loses to top 5 teams. We do need to move up and potential is there if we win next two. But should be higher already.

Basically, it was a combination play on words and recognition we need to beat someone rated higher than us to get a decent rating. IN the main poll (Stats FCS) we only get 50 points, so that is barely registering. The next three games go along way to a credible rating.

[Catprint]

I still contend there are two main reasons for maintaining a discussion on the path to the playoffs:

1) Very few teams in the FCS are going to win out at this point and in the Big Sky it will be particularly difficult (Maybe not even EWU). This means various configurations of wins/losses will make a difference to the committee. See comments made earlier in the thread on how last year BSC was only a hair's breath from six 8-3 teams and there was NO way all six would make the playoffs. It is not just win-loss record.

2) There are only 14 at-large bids and what happens in other conferences makes a huge impact on what record in the BSC might get an invite and how many teams from BSC get an invite. We are not playing in a vacuum. A couple strong teams don't win their conference and suddenly two at-large spots go up in smoke to essentially weak teams. The CAA and MVFC are keys to watch. The three large conferences might capture 10-12 of the total at-large bids.

But goes without saying we have to win our final 3 home games; split the next two road games OR believe in miracles to be seriously in the conversation come Cat/Griz.

[DriscollCat]

I definitely think it’s worth maintaining the conversation. Especially if we are on the bubble. I didn’t dig into your 6 team 8 win scenario before, because it can be a lot of work, but it did raise my skepticism flag. The difficulty with a lot of teams being 8-3 is that there are only so many conference wins to go around, so I went into the scenario to see if it was realistic.

IF from last year…1) the Griz had beat us at home; 2) Eastern beats Southern Utah (game was not nearly as lopsided as the score and EWU was in the game until last 5 minutes) and 3) Sac State wins one more. The result? There would have been six Big Sky teams with an 8-3 or better record (SUU, Weber, NAU, UM, EWU and SSU).

1) The only SSU loss that wouldn't wreck this scenario if it turned into a win was their game against Idaho. Possible to get, but this also improves the BSC resume, adding an FBS win (meaning we get more teams in the playoffs).

2) I am seeing 7 wins for NAU last year. What am I missing?

3) So, by my accounting (I'm open to corrections), we would have 5 teams at 8-3, with an added FBS win for the conference resume, improving our chances at 5 teams in the playoffs, which is generally accepted as a possibility if the resumes are good enough.

I still see your case for an outside chance at a team with an 8-3 record from the BSC not getting in, I just think that the chances of that are extremely slim.

Most importantly, we are more likely to be 7-4 than we are to be 8-3, so the discussion is still VERY worthwhile!

[Catprint]

Out of town this week so slow to update. Taking my chances that by the time this is read, the information will be stale after Saturday’s game. Oh well. Last week the Cats won but not the strong win they needed. The FCS Top 25 poll left the Cats at 32 barely moving up. Collegemadness has Cats at 17. That rank seems too high based on strength of schedule and the tight wins against weak competition. This week, I want to look at why teams with similar records at this point in the season are so far apart in the polls. There are 19 teams ahead of the Cats in the poll with at least 2 losses. Let’s look at only the teams from the Big Sky Conference as well as a couple of other teams. Overall, it still matters where you started in the polls and the quality of wins. A Quality Win is against a FBS team OR an FCS team with at least a 500 record. A Quality Loss is against a FBS team or a ranked FCS team. Here are 9 teams and how they fit on this arbitrary scorecard:

Preseason......Current......Team...........Record........Quality Wins............Quality Losses
Rank............Rank
8................7..............Weber...........4-2..............3........................1 FBS
9................9..............EWU.............5-2..............2........................2 (1 FBS)
41..............10.............UC Davis........5-1..............3.(1 FBS)...............1 FBS
4...............14.............Sam Houston...4-2..............1.........................0
NR..............16.............Maine...........4-2..............2 (1 FBS)...............1
40..............26.............UND.............4-2..............2.........................2 (1 FBS)
NR..............28.............ISU..............4-2..............2.........................2 (1 FBS)
44..............32.............MSU.............4-2..............0.........................2
24..............33.............UM..............4-3..............2.........................0

I realize this isn’t statistically sound like Sagarin or other strength of schedule but here are some observations.

• Starting high in the poll keeps you up in the polls (Look at Sam Houston with only one quality win and no quality losses)
• Winning an FBS game (even against an inferior team) is worth gold to the voters (Maine went from unrated to #22 after a FBS win)
• MSU is the ONLY team with NO quality wins!
• Winning big gets you big points regardless of the competition

This all reinforces that if you start too low in the polls or don't win by large scores or get some quality wins, the overall win-loss is not enough.

So after 7 weeks, the Cats are exactly where I predicted, although with weaker wins. Based on the number of teams ahead of us in the polls, I still contend 7-4 will not get us in the playoffs. There are too many teams with strong strength of schedule. If we lose to Weber and ISU and win out, we will likely have no wins against a winning team. While all the wins will be D-I, none of them will be quality wins. In fact, I will go out on a limb and say that while a win against Weber will put us on the map and likely into the top 25; a loss to Weber is going to likely drop us off the vote counting (only 62 votes now) and even if we win the last four and end up at 8-3, I think we will be left out of the playoff picture. We could easily end up fourth in the Big Sky at 8-3 (6-2) and there are too many teams ahead of us for those precious at large spots. So now I have said it. But Go Cats!

DATE...........GAME........Result Needed.................................Record........Comment/Actual Result
Week 1.........WIU..........Win at Home......................................1-0.........Won a close one
Week 2.........SDSU.........Loss is ok but not a blowout...................1-1…..…….Blowout Loss. Hope the committee doesn’t remember to look at game film this far back in the season!
Week 3.........Wagner.......Strong win........................................2-1…………Got the strong win!
Week 4.........PSU...........Win – stronger is better.........................3-1………..Run with the wind
Week 5.........EWU..........Loss - We have to win 1 of 2-UI or EW........3-2
Week 6.........OPEN
Week 7 .........UI.............Win – Need Strong Win…………..................4-2…………Strong - NOT
Week 8.........Weber........Win this or UM – loss here.......................4-3
Week 9.........ISU............Win- Big "VERY IFFY NOW"......................5-3
Week 10.......Cal Poly.......Big Win.............................................6-3
Week 11.......NCU...........Big Win.............................................7-3
Week 12.......UM.............Win.................................................8-3

[91catAlum]

That's a good argument, but the flaw is that it ignores the records, and strength of schedule, of the other bubble teams. 24 teams goto the playoffs, would there really be 24 more deserving teams than an 8-3 Bobcats team, whose only 3 losses were to top 10 teams? I don't know.
When we went to the playoffs in 2014, who was our quality win that year?? I guess Idaho State was decent that year, but I don't recall beating anybody good.

And if that scenario happened, it would be the first time in history that an 8-3 Big Sky team was left out.