How good will Cats be?

[Anacomando]

Can the Cats have a winning season? Why or why not. They won't contend for Big Sky this year but I really like what Choate brings. I say 6-5.

[bobcat99]

6-5 is a pretty good guess. Offense will do fine, maybe very good depending on Bruggman. Defense will be not so good.

[Bozcat003]

I think 7-4, 8-3 best case.

Offense will be fine, and I think defense will be better then some suspect. A lot of moving pieces until September 1st, but I think we are a playoff team

[onceacat]

I would be really disappointed in 6-5. I think that Cat fans should consider that as a floor. I think that under Ash & co, this team would have a minimum expectation of 7 wins. Its a little bit crazy to think we hired Choate to keep around the same level.

Here's why:

1. Offense is going to be just fine. The Cats are loaded at RB & TE, have a really convincing & experienced O-line (especially considering 3 graduates). None of the WRs jump out as 1st team all BSC, but we are super deep and varied there. QB is the only question mark, and considering that the cats had the same winning % with Jake Bleskin at QB as they did with DP, I'm not even remotely worried. (Don't believe me-consider that the ONLY time the Cats beat a team with a winning record over the last 2 years was with Bleskin under center. Geez, that hurts...One win over a team with a winning record in 2 seasons...) At any rate, there isn't a position on the O that is even remotely a worry.

2. Its hard to believe that the D could get worse, but anyone who watched BSC football last year knows that it can. Bad as the Cats were, NAU and EWU weren't appreciably better. UCD, ISU, UNCU, SSU Poly were all (probably) worse. Add in that SUU lost 3 NFL caliber players, I've never been sold on UND-they are so overrated on this board. Bottom line, other than UM and PSU, I'm not sure that there will be a good D in the BSC next year. So, while its possible that the Cats could drop into the bottom third of the BSC, I don't think they are going to.

Why? First, the Cats best player (Sheridan) was playing out of position (IMHO). By my recollection, the Cats started at various times a true freshman at CB (Strong), a RS frosh at DL (Yates) 3 soph at Safety (McCabe/Garcia/King) Sophomores at LB (Collins, Bignell) and DE (Fa'anono). I don't think there is a single guy in that bunch who doesn't have the talent to be a 1st team all-BSC caliber player, and a couple are potential all-Americans. Every single one of them also looked downright awful at times last season-only a couple were ready to play on the 2 deep, and Bignell was the only legit BSC starter in the group.

New coaching, new philosophy, an offseason in the weight room. A chance to watch more film, and a full season of playing together should add up to some pretty solid gains next year. You flat out don't start Frosh on the DL. Ever. Unless you managed to recruit Jadeveon Clowney. Look at our all-time great DL-Minter didn't play until he was a sop, Daly was a role player as a soph. Fletcher, Ogden, Schribeis, you get the idea. Its just really rare for young players to be good. And we basically played an entire team of underclassmen.

Add in a couple of transfers at DT and CB, and this has all the makings of being a reasonable BSC defense.

I wouldn't expect a playoff spot, but I think 6-5 is a pretty low expectation for how weak the schedule looks (at least on paper).

[waCat33]

I think that they will better then most people would expect. Maybe a 7-4 or an 8-3 season. Maybe even in the playoffs! The offense will be very good because Ash was an offensive minded coach and left the cupboard pretty stocked offensively. I think Choate will turn the D around quickly because the problem the last few years on D was not the caliber of athletes the Cats had - it was coaching/scheme/technique. Choate will bring the needed coaching and toughness that the D needs.

[PHAT CAT]

8-3. 9-2 is not out of reach.

[77matcat]

Think once presented a good break down of talent. I believe the biggest factor that changes this, from last year is attitude. My outside looking in perspective characterizes the difference as kumbaya ball compared to tuff love ball.

I believe (hope) the talent and new attitude could give us a PSU type year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[iaafan]

If you measure good in terms of yards gained and points scored, then not as good offensively. I would measure it in terms of efficiency, but there isn't a tool for that.

Defensively, you'd have to think better statistically, but it's going to take a big improvement to make a difference. A big improvement is attainable.

Relative to the rest of the league is anyone's guess. The league is so bad that someone could go 11-0 and be expect to lose its first playoff game. There isn't a clear cut favorite this year.

How's that for saying something without saying anything?

[CARDIAC_CATS]

I would be really disappointed in 6-5. I think that Cat fans should consider that as a floor. I think that under Ash & co, this team would have a minimum expectation of 7 wins. Its a little bit crazy to think we hired Choate to keep around the same level.

Here's why:

1. Offense is going to be just fine. The Cats are loaded at RB & TE, have a really convincing & experienced O-line (especially considering 3 graduates). None of the WRs jump out as 1st team all BSC, but we are super deep and varied there. QB is the only question mark, and considering that the cats had the same winning % with Jake Bleskin at QB as they did with DP, I'm not even remotely worried. (Don't believe me-consider that the ONLY time the Cats beat a team with a winning record over the last 2 years was with Bleskin under center. Geez, that hurts...One win over a team with a winning record in 2 seasons...) At any rate, there isn't a position on the O that is even remotely a worry.

2. Its hard to believe that the D could get worse, but anyone who watched BSC football last year knows that it can. Bad as the Cats were, NAU and EWU weren't appreciably better. UCD, ISU, UNCU, SSU Poly were all (probably) worse. Add in that SUU lost 3 NFL caliber players, I've never been sold on UND-they are so overrated on this board. Bottom line, other than UM and PSU, I'm not sure that there will be a good D in the BSC next year. So, while its possible that the Cats could drop into the bottom third of the BSC, I don't think they are going to.

Why? First, the Cats best player (Sheridan) was playing out of position (IMHO). By my recollection, the Cats started at various times a true freshman at CB (Strong), a RS frosh at DL (Yates) 3 soph at Safety (McCabe/Garcia/King) Sophomores at LB (Collins, Bignell) and DE (Fa'anono). I don't think there is a single guy in that bunch who doesn't have the talent to be a 1st team all-BSC caliber player, and a couple are potential all-Americans. Every single one of them also looked downright awful at times last season-only a couple were ready to play on the 2 deep, and Bignell was the only legit BSC starter in the group.

New coaching, new philosophy, an offseason in the weight room. A chance to watch more film, and a full season of playing together should add up to some pretty solid gains next year. You flat out don't start Frosh on the DL. Ever. Unless you managed to recruit Jadeveon Clowney. Look at our all-time great DL-Minter didn't play until he was a sop, Daly was a role player as a soph. Fletcher, Ogden, Schribeis, you get the idea. Its just really rare for young players to be good. And we basically played an entire team of underclassmen.

Add in a couple of transfers at DT and CB, and this has all the makings of being a reasonable BSC defense.

I wouldn't expect a playoff spot, but I think 6-5 is a pretty low expectation for how weak the schedule looks (at least on paper).

I agree. We didn't bring in Coach Choate to be a 6-5 team (especially with the schedule). This teams has talent and the D will be better. If we go 6-5 that will be a MAJOR disappointment in my mind.

[GoCats18]

9-2 and we share the conference title.

[mslacatfan]

sorry, couldn't resist. (anytime anyone ever says playoffs, that's the first thing that pops in my head).

Seriously though, I predict 8-3, WITH a playoff birth. There is plenty of talent on this team across the board to compete in the Big Sky. (someone else mentioned it, but the Big Sky is actually pretty bad these days, overall)

Can't frickin wait to see what this team/new coaching staff can do!

[iaafan]

I'll put a little more meat to my earlier post. Just based on how bad I think the league is I think 9-2 is easily attainable. With EWU and NAU coming to Bozeman and S. Utah losing a ton on defense and losing Lamb, MSU's biggest challenges will come from road games at Idaho, Weber and UM. Win one or two of those and 9-2 is there for the taking.

You have to be optimistic about the secondary with Hale and Walker joining the group. Walker got a ton of playing time at Colorado and Hale played a lot as a true frosh at UW. McCabe and Garcia are both hard hitters at safety and the corners have good depth. A strong secondary goes a long way in creating a good defense in the BSC. Jesse Clark was really coming on late last year and I think he and Collins can take advantage of the improved coverage. The offense will be more efficient and that will help the defense.

[VimSince03]

Well lets look at the schedule:

9/1/2016 at Idaho (L)
9/10/2016 Bryant (W)
9/17/2016 Western Oregon (W)
9/24/2016 North Dakota (W)
10/1/2016 at Sacramento State (W)
10/8/2016 Northern Arizona (L)
10/15/2016 at Weber State (W)
10/22/2016 Eastern Washington (W)
11/5/2016 at Southern Utah (W)
11/12/2016 UC Davis (W)
11/19/2016 at Montana (L)

This is my prediction and I'm sticking to it.

Idaho - I think we come out flat because of some chemistry issues with the offense but we make a good game out of it. Since they are FBS, I assume they have a more talented roster so I'll predict this as a loss.
Bryant - Better team than most will think (they had a good year last year), but this is the home opener and our boys will be ready to play...as will the fans.
Western Oregon - This will be a win so let's move on.
North Dakota - The first big game of the year regardless of how we do up to this point. If we don't stop their run game, this will be another long game. But I believe in our home-field advantage plus this is homecoming. Like last year, I think we get a big win on homecoming in front of our fans.
Sacramento State - They are a rebuilding team and they just don't have any firepower on both sides of the ball. I think we get a double-digit win at Sac.
Northern Arizona - The second big game of the year comes against the Lumberjacks. History tells us that we should ignore how we play at Flagstaff to predict how we play NAU at home. However, Case Cookus can pick you apart if you don't provide pressure (see our game last year vs the Griz game last year for what happens when you pressure Cookus). They won't score as much as they did last year but I think NAU will be a favorite to win the conference next year and they get a big win against us here.
Weber State - We head back to Ogden after a few years hiatus. Weber's defense is underrated and they should be good again this fall. This will be a physical, ground-and-pound football game that we come out on top in the end.
Eastern Washington - The third big game of the year. I've based this upcoming season on how we do against UND, NAU, and EWU. I'm confident in my predictions for the other games but these three games will decide our fate in 2016. Eastern had an odd year last year. They had a tough schedule early on but they never really rebounded as they played bad football in the games they should have won easily. They graduated some very good players last year on both sides of the ball but they still got that man named Kupp. I think we finally break through here and get a big victory against the Eagles to break their winning streak against us. We head into the bye week at 6-2.
Southern Utah - I firmly believe they will have a down year next year as they graduated a ton of seniors. I think we surprise people and get an easy win down in Utah.
UC Davis - Another team that could surprise people next year is UCD. Ron Gould is rebuilding them and they recently had one of the best recruiting classes in the Big Sky. However, we get them at home and we need this win to head into next week's game which will be for the Big Sky conference.
Montana - We head into Washington Grizzly at 8-2 and likely will be playing the Griz for the Big Sky conference crown. I predict that the Griz offense will be the best in the conference (if Gustafson stays healthy) and their defense won't have much of a drop-off. You need to have a really good QB to play in this game. A guy who can take control and come up big in the clutch. You also need to establish the run. If you look back at the last two years, Chad Newell has been very productive against the Griz each year. If we want to have a shot at winning this one, we need to run the football and we need to win it with the two Montana boys (Brekke & Newell). If we get down and try to throw the ball to get back into it, this one will be over quickly. I predict a loss but it will be the best game of the last three years. Griz win with a field goal in the end (ironically because their kicking game is awful).

So there you have it. 8-3 if we can take 2-3 from the UND, NAU, EWU trio. All three of those games are at home so we have a legitimate chance at going 8-3 or 9-2. Our offense will be fine and our defense will be improved with actual depth at all three levels (except for safety ). Excited to see how the two transfer CB's look and how Grant Collins/Jessie Clark work at the buck position. If they show good things early on, our defense will automatically be better.

[thefrank1]

I'm no Lou Holtz. Idaho is in disarray. There is no way this bunch is going to continue the losing streak to dUMb now that they have legitimate motivators and true talent assessors for coaches. I'm going for 10 - 1 but don't think the loss will be to NAU, but rather to Weber State.

[luckyirishguy25]

I'll be happy with a winning season 6-5, I think we can get 7-4 fairly easy. Lots of new cogs in a whole new system on both sides of the ball, so I expect a few hiccups. I also think we should beat Idaho fairly easy, our most likey losses are too: EWU, NAU, UM and SUU ( I see UND as a winnable game but that wouldn't surprise me if we lost again this year for a 6-5 record.)

The only way I will be disappointed this coming season is if the D doesn't look leaps and bounds better than last year.

[catatac]

Agree on some of the comments about Idaho. Looking at their schedule last year it looks like their defense is probably as bad if not worse than ours. Most teams put up around 50 on them. Our offense can put up points on anyone, so I'd guess we'll put up around 40 on them. All depends on what kind of a defense we have in 2016. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll hang with team and hopefully sneak out of there with the W. Overall I'm feeling a 7-4 type of season.

[HawkAndBobcat]

Here is my take on the upcoming season: (7-4 Overall; 4-4 Big Sky)


9/1/2016 at Idaho (W)
9/10/2016 Bryant (W)
9/17/2016 Western Oregon (W)
9/24/2016 North Dakota (W)
10/1/2016 at Sacramento State (W)
10/8/2016 Northern Arizona (L)
10/15/2016 at Weber State (W)
10/22/2016 Eastern Washington (L)
11/5/2016 at Southern Utah (L)
11/12/2016 UC Davis (W)
11/19/2016 at Montana (L)

IDAHO: I think Choate's fire and Rah-Rah through fall camp will power the boys through to a narrow season opening victory. MSU Squeaks past UI 24-23.
BRYANT: The Rhode Island Ugly Dogs will be sucking down the thin air from the moment they set foot off the plane. 'Cats win with ease. 'Cats win 46-16.
WESTERN OREGON: An underwhelming 42-10 snoozer. 'Cats win, but look ugly doing so.
NORTH DAKOTA: THERE IS NO WAY THAT WE LOSE TO THE FIGHTING WHIOUX AT HOME! [It'd be really cool if we wore the '84 uniforms here. That was so awesome when we wore them two years ago against UND]. 'Cats win 34-19.
SACRAMENTO STATE: This could be a dangerous game, and historically this game has recently been a nail-biter shootout type. But MSU hasn't lost to Sac State in Cali in quite some time. I don't see it happening this year. 'Cats win 36-19.
NORTHERN ARIZONA: That goofball Souers has had success in Bozeman, and I think our "too good to be true start" comes crashing back down to earth. MSU comes up short 28-17.
WEBER STATE: Choate is furious that the boys lost last week, and our 'Cats thump the Purple Kitties hard in the mouth. MSU 41-17.
EASTERN WASHINGTON: Now that this game counts toward the conference totals, maybe the 'Cats will win this one. However I won't believe it until I see it. MSU falls short 38-33.
SOUTHERN UTAH: All of the Bobcat fans that made the trip down, are too hungover from the trip to Vegas and when the team needs us, we don't deliver. SUU has a bigger fanbase and it makes a difference when the game matters. 'Cats lose 31-23.
UC DAVIS: Choate will be damned if the seniors don't go out with a victory on Senior Day. The also need the win from a playoff standpoint. MSU responds and thumps the Aggies 38-10.
missoula: I know that having Gregorak & Choate will give us a motivation we havent seen in quite a while. But until MONTANA State Bobcat Football program can overcome their mental deficiencies against those damn dark pink bears. I don't see the Brawl going in our favor... And needing this win to enhance playoff hopes, MSU does what MSU does best... NOT SHOW UP IN NOVEMBER. Dark Pink Bears win 28-12.

[John K]

I think that they will better then most people would expect. Maybe a 7-4 or an 8-3 season. Maybe even in the playoffs! The offense will be very good because Ash was an offensive minded coach and left the cupboard pretty stocked offensively. I think Choate will turn the D around quickly because the problem the last few years on D was not the caliber of athletes the Cats had - it was coaching/scheme/technique. Choate will bring the needed coaching and toughness that the D needs.

I would also add a severe lack of fundamentals as being a major factor in our defensive deficiencies the last couple of years. Did you see that one interview with Choate at the end of spring practice, when he talked about how much time they spent working on fundamentals? He spent a big chunk of the interview talking about it. I took two things away from that. A-We must have been really bad in that area if we had to devote that much time to fundamentals during spring ball. B-Knowing that they did emphasize fundamentals so much this spring tells me that the defense should be significantly better this year, for that reason alone.

I'm predicting 7-4 with losses to Idaho, Weber, Southern Utah, and Montana, but I'm always pessimistic/realistic when making predictions like this. In reality, I would be very disappointed if we aren't at least 7-4, and not at all surprised if we go 8-3. I just can't believe that we won't be at least 2 games better than the 5-6 record we posted in 2015. Remember, this team was picked to win the BSC last year, and I know there are a few question marks, but there's also a lot returning talent.

[MSU01]

My prediction is that MSU will be better than we fear but not as good as we hope, with slight improvements on defense and a less prolific but still very capable offense, and most importantly clear signs of improvement for the team moving forward. Predicting individual game results in May is an exercise in futility in the extreme, although there's of course nothing else to talk about at this point except to take the thread about MSU's shortest tenured Athletic Director over 200 posts!

[suptscott]

9/1/2016 at Idaho (W)
9/10/2016 Bryant (W)
9/17/2016 Western Oregon (W)
9/24/2016 North Dakota (W)
10/1/2016 at Sacramento State (L)
10/8/2016 Northern Arizona (W)
10/15/2016 at Weber State (L)
10/22/2016 Eastern Washington (L)
11/5/2016 at Southern Utah (W)
11/12/2016 UC Davis (W)
11/19/2016 at Montana (W)
A hopeful 8-3 but I could make a case for 6-5, I just don't want to!!

Idaho- They are a wreck and we will be fired up to get going.
Bryant- We will win a closer game than people think.
Western Oregon- We get another win and move to 3-0
North Dakota- Tough game but we pull it out
Sac State- This will be a let down game for us
NAU- Close but again we pull it out as the defense begins to play better
Weber- I think Weber will be better than many give them credit for. Close, but we stumble on the road
EWU - To much horse power for us this year
Southern Utah- We rally for the win
UC Davis- Get a good win and some momentum for the BIG ONE
um- Choate gets the first one and the Defense plays lights out for their coordinator as a little redemption.

A lot of close games, but we see a lot of effort and intensity all year long.