Unprepared and Inept

Discuss anything and everything relating to Bobcat Football here.

Moderators: rtb, kmax, SonomaCat

User avatar
WalkOn79
BobcatNation Hall of Famer
Posts: 3205
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2005 9:47 pm
Location: Bozeman

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by WalkOn79 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 3:24 pm

grizatwork wrote:I understand the frustration, but most teams have a clunker on the road. After Liberty, I didn't think we would win another game. Football is about match ups, momentum, and execution. NAU had it yesterday. You guys had it the week before. Each game is unique in how it unfolds. Put this in the rear view mirror. You have a part of the schedule that could help your defense build confidence. It also starts at home. Your team will be fine. Too much talent not to.

On a side note, how did sac state out gain UNC by 250 yards and have time of possession advantage and lose?
Great Post! I was feeling horrible yesterday, but now looking forward late Saturday afternoon under the lights when we run Sac State out of the building!!


"One of the greatest feelings in the world, moving someone from point A to point B against their will"

Mitch Brott - 2019 Cat / Griz

Buckets1234
BobcatNation Redshirt
Posts: 63
Joined: Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:34 am

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by Buckets1234 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:28 pm

Jobu wrote:I want to make myself clear. I'm not always opposed to going for two of going for it on fourth down. But when going for two, there has to be a mathematical reason to do so. Down 22 there is simply no benefit whatsoever, and a major downside. It was a terrible decision.
This is an interesting post, especially the comment about not having a mathematical reason to do so. There is a very clear benefit to going for two here, not to mention the fact that NAU committed a penalty that moved the ball to the 1 before MSU went for two. If a team is down by 28 before the score, they aren't going to win very often, so putting yourself in optimal position would be wise. By going for two and succeeding on the first one you're obviously hoping for three more TDs and XPs to win by 1. Even if you miss you still have numerous opportunities to make up that point because you need three more TDs. This one is even easier to understand than the EWU 2pt try. You put yourself in a position to win the game in regulation. There is very little downside to going for two from the 1 yard line here because of all the opportunities to make that point up even if you do miss.



Buckets1234
BobcatNation Redshirt
Posts: 63
Joined: Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:34 am

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by Buckets1234 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:40 pm

Cataholic wrote:
DriscollCat wrote:I disagree whole-heartedly. Although everyone punts and kicks PATs, I don't believe they are good coaching decisions. Punting is demonstrably almost never the right choice. There is a concept in statistics called expectation value. It is the likelihood of a good outcome multiplied by the amount of good (points). When you look at the numbers, punting almost always has a lower expectation value than attempting to convert or attempting a field goal. This is just one example of how traditionalism is not supported by the data.

Our two point conversion rate has been bad. That said, it's not a bad decision especially if you are 3 Td's or more out, because the combined likelihood of coming out better after multiple tries is high enough.
I have heard your theory before and have read articles on it. Don't you think more coaches would never punt it if it worked? Additionally, the instances I have read about are high school or low level colleges. It just doesn't work at our level. If it did, everyone would go for 2 and go for every 4th down.
This is not quite as simple as you point out. Going for every fourth down or every 2pt try would be unwise. But blindly punting on every fourth down and always kicking XPs would be equally unwise. There are strategical times to take advantage of these particular situations and MSU has attempted to do exactly that this season so far. Just because something doesn't work, it doesn't mean the strategy was incorrect.



User avatar
Jobu
BobcatNation Team Captain
Posts: 566
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:07 pm

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by Jobu » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:32 am

Buckets1234 wrote:
Jobu wrote:I want to make myself clear. I'm not always opposed to going for two of going for it on fourth down. But when going for two, there has to be a mathematical reason to do so. Down 22 there is simply no benefit whatsoever, and a major downside. It was a terrible decision.
This is an interesting post, especially the comment about not having a mathematical reason to do so. There is a very clear benefit to going for two here, not to mention the fact that NAU committed a penalty that moved the ball to the 1 before MSU went for two. If a team is down by 28 before the score, they aren't going to win very often, so putting yourself in optimal position would be wise. By going for two and succeeding on the first one you're obviously hoping for three more TDs and XPs to win by 1. Even if you miss you still have numerous opportunities to make up that point because you need three more TDs. This one is even easier to understand than the EWU 2pt try. You put yourself in a position to win the game in regulation. There is very little downside to going for two from the 1 yard line here because of all the opportunities to make that point up even if you do miss.
Well, I guess we'll agree to disagree. By going for two and failing (the Cats were going for 2 prior to the penalty), you necessitate getting a two point conversion in the future just to TIE! You're down 3 TDs. You're not thinking about winning in regular time; you're thinking of surviving. The play there is to take the one, get down 21, and pray for OT. Down 22 you're chasing points the rest is the way. Say you score again and go for two ( because you now absolutely HAVE to have it)and fail again. Now it's a 16 point game and you need two TDs AND two 2-point conversions just to TIE!! I don't know another coach in Americs who goes for two down 22 in he 4th. Terrible decision.


Hats for bats. Keeps bats warm.

Buckets1234
BobcatNation Redshirt
Posts: 63
Joined: Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:34 am

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by Buckets1234 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:05 am

Jobu wrote:
Buckets1234 wrote:
Jobu wrote:I want to make myself clear. I'm not always opposed to going for two of going for it on fourth down. But when going for two, there has to be a mathematical reason to do so. Down 22 there is simply no benefit whatsoever, and a major downside. It was a terrible decision.
This is an interesting post, especially the comment about not having a mathematical reason to do so. There is a very clear benefit to going for two here, not to mention the fact that NAU committed a penalty that moved the ball to the 1 before MSU went for two. If a team is down by 28 before the score, they aren't going to win very often, so putting yourself in optimal position would be wise. By going for two and succeeding on the first one you're obviously hoping for three more TDs and XPs to win by 1. Even if you miss you still have numerous opportunities to make up that point because you need three more TDs. This one is even easier to understand than the EWU 2pt try. You put yourself in a position to win the game in regulation. There is very little downside to going for two from the 1 yard line here because of all the opportunities to make that point up even if you do miss.
Well, I guess we'll agree to disagree. By going for two and failing (the Cats were going for 2 prior to the penalty), you necessitate getting a two point conversion in the future just to TIE! You're down 3 TDs. You're not thinking about winning in regular time; you're thinking of surviving. The play there is to take the one, get down 21, and pray for OT. Down 22 you're chasing points the rest is the way. Say you score again and go for two ( because you now absolutely HAVE to have it)and fail again. Now it's a 16 point game and you need two TDs AND two 2-point conversions just to TIE!! I don't know another coach in Americs who goes for two down 22 in he 4th. Terrible decision.
Actually MSU was lined up to kick and then the penalty occurred (go back and watch.) You should never "pray" for OT in that spot. It isn't so much about surviving as it's about capitalizing on an opportunity. "Chasing points" is a myth in college football, teams convert around 50% of their 2pt conversions and therefore down four touchdowns they might as well start going for two. Like I stated previously, if you get the first one you're in great shape to try and win in regulation (should you score an already improbable 3 more TDs; and even with a miss you could still make up that point with another 2pt try on any of those succeeding TDs) I don't know how many coaches in Americs you know, but I happen to know a lot of them and they would have done the same thing in this spot.



TomCat88
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 19075
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:16 am
Location: An endless run of moguls

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by TomCat88 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:34 am

Buckets1234 wrote:
Jobu wrote:
Buckets1234 wrote:
Jobu wrote:I want to make myself clear. I'm not always opposed to going for two of going for it on fourth down. But when going for two, there has to be a mathematical reason to do so. Down 22 there is simply no benefit whatsoever, and a major downside. It was a terrible decision.
This is an interesting post, especially the comment about not having a mathematical reason to do so. There is a very clear benefit to going for two here, not to mention the fact that NAU committed a penalty that moved the ball to the 1 before MSU went for two. If a team is down by 28 before the score, they aren't going to win very often, so putting yourself in optimal position would be wise. By going for two and succeeding on the first one you're obviously hoping for three more TDs and XPs to win by 1. Even if you miss you still have numerous opportunities to make up that point because you need three more TDs. This one is even easier to understand than the EWU 2pt try. You put yourself in a position to win the game in regulation. There is very little downside to going for two from the 1 yard line here because of all the opportunities to make that point up even if you do miss.
Well, I guess we'll agree to disagree. By going for two and failing (the Cats were going for 2 prior to the penalty), you necessitate getting a two point conversion in the future just to TIE! You're down 3 TDs. You're not thinking about winning in regular time; you're thinking of surviving. The play there is to take the one, get down 21, and pray for OT. Down 22 you're chasing points the rest is the way. Say you score again and go for two ( because you now absolutely HAVE to have it)and fail again. Now it's a 16 point game and you need two TDs AND two 2-point conversions just to TIE!! I don't know another coach in Americs who goes for two down 22 in he 4th. Terrible decision.
Actually MSU was lined up to kick and then the penalty occurred (go back and watch.) You should never "pray" for OT in that spot. It isn't so much about surviving as it's about capitalizing on an opportunity. "Chasing points" is a myth in college football, teams convert around 50% of their 2pt conversions and therefore down four touchdowns they might as well start going for two. Like I stated previously, if you get the first one you're in great shape to try and win in regulation (should you score an already improbable 3 more TDs; and even with a miss you could still make up that point with another 2pt try on any of those succeeding TDs) I don't know how many coaches in Americs you know, but I happen to know a lot of them and they would have done the same thing in this spot.
Good point buckets. I'm surprised some coaches aren't going for two all the time or at least until they get a substantial lead. Especially teams with high octane offenses. The main problem I've seen with MSU going my for two is play calling. Too much running up the gut.


MSU - 15 team National Champions (most recent 2021); 57 individual National Champions (most recent 2023).
toM StUber

lutecat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2988
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:58 pm

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by lutecat » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:43 am

How about a 2 pt conversion where we line up for the swinging gate...and then we go to line up regularly and low and behold, its Prukop out there who was lined up wide originally and the other team isn't ready for that and we either get the snap off, or they waste a time-out.



[cat_bracket]
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 5869
Joined: Thu May 27, 2010 10:35 am
Location: RNC Headquarters

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by [cat_bracket] » Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:40 am

Buckets1234 wrote:
Jobu wrote:
Buckets1234 wrote:
Jobu wrote:I want to make myself clear. I'm not always opposed to going for two of going for it on fourth down. But when going for two, there has to be a mathematical reason to do so. Down 22 there is simply no benefit whatsoever, and a major downside. It was a terrible decision.
This is an interesting post, especially the comment about not having a mathematical reason to do so. There is a very clear benefit to going for two here, not to mention the fact that NAU committed a penalty that moved the ball to the 1 before MSU went for two. If a team is down by 28 before the score, they aren't going to win very often, so putting yourself in optimal position would be wise. By going for two and succeeding on the first one you're obviously hoping for three more TDs and XPs to win by 1. Even if you miss you still have numerous opportunities to make up that point because you need three more TDs. This one is even easier to understand than the EWU 2pt try. You put yourself in a position to win the game in regulation. There is very little downside to going for two from the 1 yard line here because of all the opportunities to make that point up even if you do miss.
Well, I guess we'll agree to disagree. By going for two and failing (the Cats were going for 2 prior to the penalty), you necessitate getting a two point conversion in the future just to TIE! You're down 3 TDs. You're not thinking about winning in regular time; you're thinking of surviving. The play there is to take the one, get down 21, and pray for OT. Down 22 you're chasing points the rest is the way. Say you score again and go for two ( because you now absolutely HAVE to have it)and fail again. Now it's a 16 point game and you need two TDs AND two 2-point conversions just to TIE!! I don't know another coach in Americs who goes for two down 22 in he 4th. Terrible decision.
Actually MSU was lined up to kick and then the penalty occurred (go back and watch.) You should never "pray" for OT in that spot. It isn't so much about surviving as it's about capitalizing on an opportunity. "Chasing points" is a myth in college football, teams convert around 50% of their 2pt conversions and therefore down four touchdowns they might as well start going for two. Like I stated previously, if you get the first one you're in great shape to try and win in regulation (should you score an already improbable 3 more TDs; and even with a miss you could still make up that point with another 2pt try on any of those succeeding TDs) I don't know how many coaches in Americs you know, but I happen to know a lot of them and they would have done the same thing in this spot.
Yep. Everything to gain, nothing to lose.



77matcat
Member # Retired
Posts: 2549
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:12 pm

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by 77matcat » Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:49 am

TC88

Good point buckets. I'm surprised some coaches aren't going for two all the time or at least until they get a substantial lead. Especially teams with high octane offenses. The main problem I've seen with MSU going my for two is play calling. Too much running up the gut.

Agree with this. Was strange to me that we run a wide open offense, our line was not getting any push and defense is stacked and we go up the middle.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



User avatar
94VegasCat
Golden Bobcat
Posts: 4185
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:38 am
Location: Physically in northern Montana but my heart and soul are in Bobcat Stadium

Re: Unprepared and Inept

Post by 94VegasCat » Sat Oct 31, 2015 4:26 pm

Bump



For humor


GO CATS GO. ESG! GO CATS GO

Post Reply