Cat-Griz mystery

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utucats
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Re: Cat-Griz mystery

Post by utucats » Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:02 pm

John K wrote:
GRZZ wrote:
Jobu wrote:
LimpKitty wrote:It is obvious they cheat and steal signs, they have a video guy that films our games and writes down hand signals so they have an advantage at the end of the year. I heard they keep the same guy so it is easier to keep quiet and not many people know about this going on.

If that were true (it's not), and it's such common knowledge (it's not), doesn't it really say more about us that we wouldn't simply change our signs for the first 5 plays of the game than it does about the Griz?

Think about it. I hope we're not that inept.

This. I said this earlier. If UM has been stealing signs every year and Ash still hasn't adjusted, it says way more about him than anything else... I am also still waiting for one of the researchers to put up stats from each of the Cats playoff games under Ash and compare how far above or below the teams averages they were...I maintain that this is an end of year thing, not a Griz thing...
I don't have the time to do the research right now...perhaps a project for me during the upcoming long weekend, but I'm fairly certain that the stats would back up your assertion that it's an "end of year thing", and not necessarily confined just to Cat-Griz games. Many MSU fans don't like to hear that, particularly if it's UM fans who are saying it, but I think it's actually pretty obvious.
Agreed, it's extremely obvious. Early this year I posted some stats on Ash's resume in the playoffs and the numbers are hard to argue with. Us failing to even compete is a reoccurring problem that is not confined to just last weekend. When I posted those stats I left out Cat-Griz, if you add Ash's record in THE game to his playoff stats the already atrocious numbers become even more troubling.


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Griznationalist
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Re: Cat-Griz mystery

Post by Griznationalist » Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:32 pm

Sotallytober wrote:
Griznationalist wrote:I don't agree that the Cats are chokers or that the Cats get overly intimidated by the Griz. It's as simple as the best team wins. Sometimes it's the Griz. Sometimes it's the Cats. Usually it's the Griz.
You're crazy if you think a sample size of 1 is large enough to say the Griz are better than the Cats. They were better, in Missoula on November 22nd.
Oh no. Rationalizing and bargaining. :-^



Silenoz
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Re: Cat-Griz mystery

Post by Silenoz » Thu Nov 27, 2014 12:50 am

John K wrote:
Griznationalist wrote:I don't agree that the Cats are chokers or that the Cats get overly intimidated by the Griz. It's as simple as the best team wins. Sometimes it's the Griz. Sometimes it's the Cats. Usually it's the Griz.
I think that's a slight oversimplification. In the years when the Cats were better, we won very close games, 21-16 in 2010, and 16-7 in 2012. Some might say that the 2012 game wasn't as close as the final score would indicate, but it was still just a one score game right up until we kicked our final field goal with less than five minutes remaining (even though Griz fans started streaming for the exits at the end of the 3rd quarter). And the Cats were a much better team that year, finishing 7-1/10-1 versus 3-5/5-6 for UM. Conversely, the margins have been much greater in the years that UM has won, 41-20 in 2007, 35-3 in 2008, 33-19 in 2009, 36-10 in 2011, 28-14 in 2013, and of course 34-7 this year. In the last three of those UM victories, the teams went into the game with very similar records. I don't think anyone would have felt that UM was more than just a very slight favorite in any of those games, even last year when MSU really nosedived late in the season. In 2011 in fact, even though UM had a very good team that year, the Cats would certainly have been favored, since they were ranked #! in the nation and playing at home. So no, I don't necessarily buy that it's as simple as "the best team wins".
Well it's not just Cat-Griz that showcases these trends. 2011, for example:

Cats
Montana L 10-36
New Hampshire W 26-25
@Sam Houston State L 13-49

Griz
@Montana State W 36-10
Central Arkansas W 41-14
Northern Iowa W 48-10
@Sam Houston State L 28-31


...one program has a propensity to be blown out late in the year, or get close wins. The other has blowout wins, and close losses. It's not strictly confined to Cat-Griz.

Why? No idea. Depth? "Heritage'? Lack of fire from Ash? Take your guess. It's probably a lot of things.



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