Weekly Prediction Thread: Week 9 at Cal Poly

[WalkOn79]

4th Place!! That's the highest I've ever been this late in the season.

[codecat]

Not that it has any bearing on this weekends’ game, but just to keep the facts straight: The Cats are 6-1 following an in-season bye week under Coach Ash:
2013 Weber – win
2012 UND - win
2011 UM - lose
2010 UM - win
2009 UNC - win
2008 USD - win
2007 Dixie St – win

If you want to add in the playoff games following a first-round bye, the Cats are 2-1 under Ash:
2012 Stony Brook - Win
2011 UNH – win
2010 NDSU - lose

I believe the facts always have bearing on the discussion, thanks for looking these up I get it is easier for some to blame somebody else (particularly head coaches, OC's, and DC's), and in fact used to to be that way myself, rather than deal with the facts or take personal responsibility for how life is.

[catatac]

Not that it has any bearing on this weekends’ game, but just to keep the facts straight: The Cats are 6-1 following an in-season bye week under Coach Ash:
2013 Weber – win
2012 UND - win
2011 UM - lose
2010 UM - win
2009 UNC - win
2008 USD - win
2007 Dixie St – win

If you want to add in the playoff games following a first-round bye, the Cats are 2-1 under Ash:
2012 Stony Brook - Win
2011 UNH – win
2010 NDSU - lose

Awesome stats, thanks for looking that up.

[The MICKSTER]

CP has played 7 FCS teams & 6 BSC teams and is scoring an average of 37 PPG and giving up ~30 PPG. MSU has played 6 FCS teams & 5 BSC teams and is scoring an average of 47 PPG and giving up ~35 PPG. On offense CP has a ~4.2:1 ratio of runs to passes, where MSU has a ~1.8:1 ratio of runs to passes.
In 4 out of 5 of CP’s wins, they had an average of +12 min advantage in TOP. The exception was SSU where they had an average of 7 yards per carry, so they didn’t need to possess the ball long on their way to score 56 points. In their 3 losses they were -12, -2, & even in TOP.
MSU’s rush defense is the middle of the pack in the BSC. CP’s defense against the run & pass are both middle of the pack as well. CP is leading the BSC in rushing offense at 365 YPG. However, they have played WSU, SSU, SUU, NAU, & um which are ranked 13th, 11th, 12th, 8th, & 7th respectively in the BSC against the run. MSU is ranked 6th in the BSC against the run.
As other posters have mentioned, I think MSU’s offense will put pressure on CP to score a lot of points which takes them out of their strength and game plan of running the ball over 4 times as often as they pass. When that happens their ability to control the clock and win the TOP goes away and their likely hood of winning goes down. I think they still get a lot of yards running the ball and passing as well, and will likely score above their average # of points (after all MSU’s defense is not their strength and I don’t believe that we can hold a team under their average on the road). So I’m guessing that CP scores 42 on us, even with an extra week to prepare and get healthy.
However, I don’t see why the CATS can’t score at least their average of PPG with Cramsey & Co. gettin’ an extra week to devise a game plan. So I’m saying we score our average on the road of 47.
There you have it…. CATS 47 – CP 42, MSU wins the TOP by +4 min in a game where CP is playing from behind most of the time. Therefore, take the over!
If the CATS kick off to open the game, and at half end up near even in TOP that’s a good sign. If the CATS receive and are 2+ minutes ahead in TOP at half that’s a good sign as well.

[Counter Assault]

okokokok. I CONCEDE the bye week part of my statement. I was thinking of a couple of games, but we do in fact do better.

My initial points are my more salient ones: Our defense has consistently shown they can't defend this type of offense. Brown is killing it. Their defense is better than average.

My conclusion is the same, removing the bye week part. Versus the other three high powered offenses this year (Ark St, EWU, Sac State), where they had an elusive QB... we gave up 547, 582 and 694 total yards of offense. Knighten passed for 219 yards and ran for 104 yards. Vernon passed for 358 yards and Forte ran for 190 yards. Safron passed for 463 yards and ran 146. This compares to the Cats overall allowed for the season of 476 total, 320 pass and 156 rush (all totals).

Big Sky Rank Offenses. Cal Poly #5 scoring offense, MSU #4 scoring offense. Cal Poly #4 total offense, MSU #5 total offense. Pretty dang even.

Big Sky Rank Defenses. Cal Poly #1 scoring defense, MSU #6 scoring defense. Cal Poly #3 total defense, MSU #4 total defense. Cal Poly looks better on defensive stats.

FYI: Sac State #10 scoring D, #10 total D. EWU #8 scoring D, #11 total D.

Stats are stats. My feeling is.... this is going to be high scoring shoot out. Statistically, we look even on offense. Cal Poly looks better on defense. Lastly, when you look at MSU's performance against higher powered offenses that includes an elusive QB - our defense is degraded. Safron ripped apart our defense.

We are playing a high powered offense, with an elusive QB. Our defense has shown vulnerabilities there. Cal Poly is a meaningfully better defense than these defenses.

[tdub]

okokokok. I CONCEDE the bye week part of my statement. I was thinking of a couple of games, but we do in fact do better.

My initial points are my more salient ones: Our defense has consistently shown they can't defend this type of offense. Brown is killing it. Their defense is better than average.

My conclusion is the same, removing the bye week part. Versus the other three high powered offenses this year (Ark St, EWU, Sac State), where they had an elusive QB... we gave up 547, 582 and 694 total yards of offense. Knighten passed for 219 yards and ran for 104 yards. Vernon passed for 358 yards and Forte ran for 190 yards. Safron passed for 463 yards and ran 146. This compares to the Cats overall allowed for the season of 476 total, 320 pass and 156 rush (all totals).

Big Sky Rank Offenses. Cal Poly #5 scoring offense, MSU #4 scoring offense. Cal Poly #4 total offense, MSU #5 total offense. Pretty dang even.

Big Sky Rank Defenses. Cal Poly #1 scoring defense, MSU #6 scoring defense. Cal Poly #3 total defense, MSU #4 total defense. Cal Poly looks better on defensive stats.

FYI: Sac State #10 scoring D, #10 total D. EWU #8 scoring D, #11 total D.

Stats are stats. My feeling is.... this is going to be high scoring shoot out. Statistically, we look even on offense. Cal Poly looks better on defense. Lastly, when you look at MSU's performance against higher powered offenses that includes an elusive QB - our defense is degraded. Safron ripped apart our defense.

We are playing a high powered offense, with an elusive QB. Our defense has shown vulnerabilities there. Cal Poly is a meaningfully better defense than these defenses.

You are right about those offenses and QB's...but there's one main difference. All of those QB's are throwing QB's that are very elusive. Brown is very good with his feet, but is not a serious threat to throw. This offense isn't built for that. This is a traditional pound-it-down-your-throat option team. All those other teams are spread option teams. I don't think MSU has played this type of offense probably since the last time they played Cal Poly.

[Counter Assault]

You're right, they are the #1 rushing offense and dead last passing. The best defense in the conference (NAU) did beat them 38-35 at home.

In that game, NAU limited their run to 271 yards, below their 347 season rushing per game. Brown did pass for 214 yards, versus the 133 passing yards per game on the season.

So it's very obvious, but we HAVE to stop that rushing attack. That's how NAU did it. UM couldn't do it and got their butts whipped.

[The MICKSTER]

okokokok. I CONCEDE the bye week part of my statement. I was thinking of a couple of games, but we do in fact do better.

My initial points are my more salient ones: Our defense has consistently shown they can't defend this type of offense. Brown is killing it. Their defense is better than average.

My conclusion is the same, removing the bye week part. Versus the other three high powered offenses this year (Ark St, EWU, Sac State), where they had an elusive QB... we gave up 547, 582 and 694 total yards of offense. Knighten passed for 219 yards and ran for 104 yards. Vernon passed for 358 yards and Forte ran for 190 yards. Safron passed for 463 yards and ran 146. This compares to the Cats overall allowed for the season of 476 total, 320 pass and 156 rush (all totals).

Big Sky Rank Offenses. Cal Poly #5 scoring offense, MSU #4 scoring offense. Cal Poly #4 total offense, MSU #5 total offense. Pretty dang even.

Big Sky Rank Defenses. Cal Poly #1 scoring defense, MSU #6 scoring defense. Cal Poly #3 total defense, MSU #4 total defense. Cal Poly looks better on defensive stats.

FYI: Sac State #10 scoring D, #10 total D. EWU #8 scoring D, #11 total D.

Stats are stats. My feeling is.... this is going to be high scoring shoot out. Statistically, we look even on offense. Cal Poly looks better on defense. Lastly, when you look at MSU's performance against higher powered offenses that includes an elusive QB - our defense is degraded. Safron ripped apart our defense.

We are playing a high powered offense, with an elusive QB. Our defense has shown vulnerabilities there. Cal Poly is a meaningfully better defense than these defenses.

You are right about those offenses and QB's...but there's one main difference. All of those QB's are throwing QB's that are very elusive. Brown is very good with his feet, but is not a serious threat to throw. This offense isn't built for that. This is a traditional pound-it-down-your-throat option team. All those other teams are spread option teams. I don't think MSU has played this type of offense probably since the last time they played Cal Poly.

I agree. Brown is not the same threat to pass as Safron or Adams. Don't misunderstand me, I think CP will score and score often. But if CP gives up an average of 30 PPG against other BSC teams, I don't see why the Bobcat offense with 2 weeks to prepare can't score well over 40 against em. I think most everyone is expecting a lot of points to be scored, but after all isn't that what we want....a score fest?

FYI you can get 'Conference Only' stats @ http://bigskyconf.com/custompages/footb ... nfonly.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; , and 'All stats' @ http://bigskyconf.com/custompages/footb ... nfldrs.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; .

[catatac]

You're right, they are the #1 rushing offense and dead last passing. The best defense in the conference (NAU) did beat them 38-35 at home.

In that game, NAU limited their run to 271 yards, below their 347 season rushing per game. Brown did pass for 214 yards, versus the 133 passing yards per game on the season.

So it's very obvious, but we HAVE to stop that rushing attack. That's how NAU did it. UM couldn't do it and got their butts whipped.

Fully agree. This game scares me. Last night I watched it again on Big Sky TV and Brown is one slick, fast SOB. Kinda reminds me of Dakota. One other interesting point I thought I'd bring up, go take a look at this game again. At least watch a few CP offensive plays. I could have sworn I could tell what was coming by watching the linemen (Especially the Center) pre snap. I know defenses watch the heck out of that stuff and try to find those tells but that center totally leans forward big time on the dive option plays versus if they have a pass dialed up.

Oh, and edit... that center is damn good.

[grizzh8r]

Our defense has consistently shown they can't defend this type of offense. Brown is killing it. Their defense is better than average. We don't do well off bye weeks.

Cal Poly: 42
MSU:35

I sincerely hope I am wrong, but that is where the money is where my mouth is.

I think that's a very realistic score prediction, but where in the hell do people come up with some of these completely false statements? From my memory I remembered us flat out dominating after bye weeks so I looked it up, and I think we kicked ass in every single game that Ash has ever coached us in, after a bye, with one exception, Griz in 2011. An extra week of prep, and getting players healthy is ALWAYS a good thing assuming you have coaches that know how to manage it.

Sorry to call you out on this but it gets annoying to hear people keep throwing these thing out there when there is zero basis. The "Ash can't win a big game", and "Ash teams always fade at the end of the year" comments come to mind.

NDSU....

Get real man. The Cats played toe-to toe with NDSU in that game and were driving inside NDSU territory midway through the 4th Q when OD (I think?) fumbled. A couple of blown assignments on Defense and DJ McNorton blew the doors off shortly thereafter. Long story short, MSU did NOT get dominated in that game - it got away right at the end.

[kwcat]

okokokok. I CONCEDE the bye week part of my statement. I was thinking of a couple of games, but we do in fact do better.

My initial points are my more salient ones: Our defense has consistently shown they can't defend this type of offense. Brown is killing it. Their defense is better than average.

My conclusion is the same, removing the bye week part. Versus the other three high powered offenses this year (Ark St, EWU, Sac State), where they had an elusive QB... we gave up 547, 582 and 694 total yards of offense. Knighten passed for 219 yards and ran for 104 yards. Vernon passed for 358 yards and Forte ran for 190 yards. Safron passed for 463 yards and ran 146. This compares to the Cats overall allowed for the season of 476 total, 320 pass and 156 rush (all totals).

Big Sky Rank Offenses. Cal Poly #5 scoring offense, MSU #4 scoring offense. Cal Poly #4 total offense, MSU #5 total offense. Pretty dang even.

Big Sky Rank Defenses. Cal Poly #1 scoring defense, MSU #6 scoring defense. Cal Poly #3 total defense, MSU #4 total defense. Cal Poly looks better on defensive stats.

FYI: Sac State #10 scoring D, #10 total D. EWU #8 scoring D, #11 total D.

Stats are stats. My feeling is.... this is going to be high scoring shoot out. Statistically, we look even on offense. Cal Poly looks better on defense. Lastly, when you look at MSU's performance against higher powered offenses that includes an elusive QB - our defense is degraded. Safron ripped apart our defense.

We are playing a high powered offense, with an elusive QB. Our defense has shown vulnerabilities there. Cal Poly is a meaningfully better defense than these defenses.

,

I was more intimidated with all your bold type and underlining than the thought of MSU playing Cal Poly. Then to add salt to the subject the use of the word salient got me even more intimidated so I had to look it up.(Yes using a dictionary when I am on the computer. I am not a smart man)Your first point, most salient, was that MSU has consistently shown that they cannot defend this type of offense. So out with the dictionary. Consistent means frequent. So since you were more poigniant, I searched all records I could find and couldn't find any team MSU played in recent history that implements the triple option. Your second salient point is Brown kills it. I agree. Third, their defense is better than average(implied BSC). Their stats are better now then most.Not sure if that means they're better or not. That's a little weak for being salient. Of course we all know the results of your 4th salient point from above more(?) salient facts.(don't know if that is the proper way to say it)
However I am an agreeable fellow and will concede I am anxious for the game as well. That would be my most salient point.(should I underline?)
Your OPINIONS are valid, however diminished when you confidently represent them as facts.(verisimilitude)
Hopefully our defense continues to improve and our offense performs to the level of which they are capable.
Then we can hoop and holler and act like we knew it all along!

[Cledus]

poiniant(?)

You meant poignant, I think.

That I recall 12th grade English is a testament to both Billings public schools and my towering intellect.

[John K]

I see this game as a virtual toss-up...I picked MSU by 35-34. Shootouts are fun, but with an eye toward what it's going to take for us to be successful the rest of the season, including playoffs, I'd gladly accept the offense being slightly less prolific, in exchange for a better showing on defense.

[LongTimeCatFan]

I see this game as a virtual toss-up...I picked MSU by 35-34. Shootouts are fun, but with an eye toward what it's going to take for us to be successful the rest of the season, including playoffs, I'd gladly accept the offense being slightly less prolific, in exchange for a better showing on defense.

Not this game. I'd be happy with a repeat of Davis

[codecat]

okokokok. I CONCEDE the bye week part of my statement. I was thinking of a couple of games, but we do in fact do better.

My initial points are my more salient ones: Our defense has consistently shown they can't defend this type of offense. Brown is killing it. Their defense is better than average.

My conclusion is the same, removing the bye week part. Versus the other three high powered offenses this year (Ark St, EWU, Sac State), where they had an elusive QB... we gave up 547, 582 and 694 total yards of offense. Knighten passed for 219 yards and ran for 104 yards. Vernon passed for 358 yards and Forte ran for 190 yards. Safron passed for 463 yards and ran 146. This compares to the Cats overall allowed for the season of 476 total, 320 pass and 156 rush (all totals).

Big Sky Rank Offenses. Cal Poly #5 scoring offense, MSU #4 scoring offense. Cal Poly #4 total offense, MSU #5 total offense. Pretty dang even.

Big Sky Rank Defenses. Cal Poly #1 scoring defense, MSU #6 scoring defense. Cal Poly #3 total defense, MSU #4 total defense. Cal Poly looks better on defensive stats.

FYI: Sac State #10 scoring D, #10 total D. EWU #8 scoring D, #11 total D.

Stats are stats. My feeling is.... this is going to be high scoring shoot out. Statistically, we look even on offense. Cal Poly looks better on defense. Lastly, when you look at MSU's performance against higher powered offenses that includes an elusive QB - our defense is degraded. Safron ripped apart our defense.

We are playing a high powered offense, with an elusive QB. Our defense has shown vulnerabilities there. Cal Poly is a meaningfully better defense than these defenses.

You are right about those offenses and QB's...but there's one main difference. All of those QB's are throwing QB's that are very elusive. Brown is very good with his feet, but is not a serious threat to throw. This offense isn't built for that. This is a traditional pound-it-down-your-throat option team. All those other teams are spread option teams. I don't think MSU has played this type of offense probably since the last time they played Cal Poly.

I agree. Brown is not the same threat to pass as Safron or Adams. Don't misunderstand me, I think CP will score and score often. But if CP gives up an average of 30 PPG against other BSC teams, I don't see why the Bobcat offense with 2 weeks to prepare can't score well over 40 against em. I think most everyone is expecting a lot of points to be scored, but after all isn't that what we want....a score fest?

FYI you can get 'Conference Only' stats @ http://bigskyconf.com/custompages/footb ... nfonly.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; , and 'All stats' @ http://bigskyconf.com/custompages/footb ... nfldrs.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; .

Agree with the differences pointed out here - our problem is primarily with a good passing QB that can beat us with his legs too. The comparative individual QB passing stats to date in the BSC are...
PASSING AVG/GAME Cl G Comp-Att-Int Pct. Yards TD Long Avg/G
1. Vernon Adams Jr-EWU JR 6 156 - 231 - 4 67.5 2157 24 61 359.5
3. Garrett Safron-SAC SR 8 173 - 278 - 8 62.2 2225 22 75 278.1
4. Dakota Prukop-MSU SO 8 132 - 193 - 5 68.4 2019 17 75 252.4
10. Chris Brown-CP JR 7 60 - 92 - 3 65.2 927 7 89 132.4

It could be close though because they are 3rd in the league in Pass Efficiency Offense and we are #6 in Pass Efficiency Defense, but the reversal of that is that we are #1 in Pass Efficiency Offense and CP is #8 in Pass Efficiency Defense. As they say, this will be a game determined by assignment sound football.

[LIBBYCAT]

I love real numbers and facts!

[kwcat]

poiniant(?)

You meant poignant, I think.

That I recall 12th grade English is a testament to both Billings public schools and my towering intellect.

Thank you. Fixed it even though my choice of wording could have been more concise.

[Darth Yoda]

I see this game as a virtual toss-up...I picked MSU by 35-34. Shootouts are fun, but with an eye toward what it's going to take for us to be successful the rest of the season, including playoffs, I'd gladly accept the offense being slightly less prolific, in exchange for a better showing on defense.

Not this game. I'd be happy with a repeat of Davis

Exactly. I would be more than happy to read another week full of the whiney little girls on this board finding every last thing to complain about after another 40 point road win.

[St George]

"Agree with the differences pointed out here - our problem is primarily with a good passing QB that can beat us with his legs too."

Our Cat defense practices every day against a better than good QB that can beat them with pass or run. I have been wondering all year has anyone seen these practices lately to see if they are all one sided?

GO CATS GO!!!

[91catAlum]

Colter has said before that the defense pretty much owns the offense in practice, but for some reason it hasn't fully carried over into a game.

On another note: doesn't EVERY defense struggle against a QB who can beat you in multiple ways???