Comparison - 2 Common Foes

MSU Toddler · Post by **MSU Toddler** » Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:25 pm

I know . . . I know . . . I know that "any given Saturday..." and there are so many factors (i.e., home vs. away, injuries, weather, etc). But I compared common opponents in the BSC (sample size of 2) of MSU and UM. Thus far:

DEFENSE:
MSU gives up 30% more passing yards per game than UM
MSU gives up 28% more rushing yards per game than UM
MSU gives up 33% more points per game than UM

OFFENSE:
MSU gains 29% more passing yards per game than UM
MSU gains 53% more rushing yards per game than UM
MSU scores 48% more points per game than UM

Because MSU has played two (EWU and SAC ST) of UM future BSC opponents, you can apply these percentages to those games to get some estimates:

EWU vs UM (Expected)
Rushing: EWU = 176 yards, UM = 193 yards
Passing: EWU = 275 yards, UM = 196 yards
Score: EWU = 39 to UM = 34

SAC ST vs UM (Expected)
Rushing: SAC = 181 yards, UM = 178 yards
Passing: SAC = 355 yards, UM = 270 yards
Score: SAC = 42 to UM = 38

Because UM has not played against one of MSU's BSC future foes, there is no way of applying this to future MSU games yet. After next week's game between UM and Cal Poly, I can apply these numbers to get expectations for MSU and Cal Poly.

Again - its just for fun...

Doc3kgt · Post by **Doc3kgt** » Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:34 pm

I expect the griz to drop 2 of their 3 games against CP, Sac, and EWU.

grizatwork · Post by **grizatwork** » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:38 pm

Doc3kgt wrote:I expect the griz to drop 2 of their 3 games against CP, Sac, and EWU.

That is entirely in the realm of possibility. CP on the road with an option offense is a tough draw for anyone. Sac and EWU have prolific offenses. They get tougher from here on out for everyone. Injuries, weather, turnovers, and luck will all play a role in how every team finishes from here on in.

PapaG · Post by **PapaG** » Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:41 pm

Just found out I'll be able to be in Missoula for the game. A meeting got moved until after Thanksgiving, meaning it opens up the Friday before the game. Can't wait to again be in the 2nd row behind the visitor bench at the 35 yard line on the North end of the field. Time to get the snow tires on the SUV now, and hope the snow isn't too bad over 4th of July or Lookout.

Joe Bobcat · Post by **Joe Bobcat** » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:10 pm

Well lucky you. You should be ok there usually isn't snow on the 4th of July and just keep an eye out on the look out.

Weltercat · Post by **Weltercat** » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:24 pm

I think the griz match up with Cal Poly favorably. If they lose it will be to EWU or SSU but I think they only lose one of the three.

GoCats18 · Post by **GoCats18** » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:42 pm

If only it was that easy. This is UM we are talking about, and as much as I hate them, they are one of the best at finding a way to win. I won't be surprised to see them win all three, though I would love to see them lose all 3.

77matcat · Post by **77matcat** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:29 am

Yup. They appear to have a tool or surgical device that allows them to reach far up within the confines of their rectum and pull out wins. Two weeks ago blocking a winning field goal and scoring themselves is great example.

Not sure of their mode but is more than plan ol luck and heaven knows its can't be heavenly assistance (frequently I've suspected satanic assistance).

Seriously, I do believe that we should have a sports phycologist on the payroll because we seem to find ways to lose games the second half of the year faster than griz find ways to pull them out of the deep recesses of their behind.

With that said, hope my perceptions are just that mine only and we pluck a multitude of wins from the jaws of defeat ourselves.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:51 am

77matcat wrote:Yup. They appear to have a tool or surgical device that allows them to reach far up within the confines of their rectum and pull out wins. Two weeks ago blocking a winning field goal and scoring themselves is great example.

Not sure of their mode but is more than plan ol luck and heaven knows its can't be heavenly assistance (frequently I've suspected satanic assistance).

Seriously, I do believe that we should have a sports phycologist on the payroll because we seem to find ways to lose games the second half of the year faster than griz find ways to pull them out of the deep recesses of their behind.

With that said, hope my perceptions are just that mine only and we pluck a multitude of wins from the jaws of defeat ourselves.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

CP, Sac, EWU, and MSU are all better teams than UND, Davis, and South Dakota... so we'll see what happens. Those are four high powered offenses, and as most of us predicted, Davis just showed that the UM defense isn't quite as dominant as most Griz fans thought. These four teams are going to put up some serious points against the Griz, we'll see if the Griz O can keep up. I have my doubts.

94VegasCat · Post by **94VegasCat** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:55 am

The only game I'd like to see the griz win, is against ewu. Then we'll be the outright champs when we finish running the BSC table.

Although I'll never cheer for them to win a damn thing, we need that one to happen because no one else will beat ewu.

Rich K · Post by **Rich K** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:59 am

94VegasCat wrote:The only game I'd like to see the griz win, is against ewu. Then we'll be the outright champs when we finish running the BSC table.

Although I'll never cheer for them to win a damn thing, we need that one to happen because no one else will beat ewu.

While I won't be cheering for the griz to win, I will always be more than happy cheering for the eagles to lose.

LongTimeCatFan · Post by **LongTimeCatFan** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:16 am

94VegasCat wrote:The only game I'd like to see the griz win, is against ewu. Then we'll be the outright champs when we finish running the BSC table.

Although I'll never cheer for them to win a damn thing, we need that one to happen because no one else will beat ewu.

Actually we don't "need" that to happen to win the conference as our game with them is considered OOC. However, their win over us can be used to determine the auto-bid.

BadlandsGrizFan · Post by **BadlandsGrizFan** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:07 pm

catatac wrote:
77matcat wrote:Yup. They appear to have a tool or surgical device that allows them to reach far up within the confines of their rectum and pull out wins. Two weeks ago blocking a winning field goal and scoring themselves is great example.

Not sure of their mode but is more than plan ol luck and heaven knows its can't be heavenly assistance (frequently I've suspected satanic assistance).

Seriously, I do believe that we should have a sports phycologist on the payroll because we seem to find ways to lose games the second half of the year faster than griz find ways to pull them out of the deep recesses of their behind.

With that said, hope my perceptions are just that mine only and we pluck a multitude of wins from the jaws of defeat ourselves.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CP, Sac, EWU, and MSU are all better teams than UND, Davis, and South Dakota... so we'll see what happens. Those are four high powered offenses, and as most of us predicted, Davis just showed that the UM defense isn't quite as dominant as most Griz fans thought. These four teams are going to put up some serious points against the Griz, we'll see if the Griz O can keep up. I have my doubts.

Wrong again my friend, usually when a really good offense faces off against a really good defense, it doesn't just jack up the score and force said defensive team to score a ton of points, generally the offensive power is brought down to earth a little...and I know Cat fans hate to recognize that this Griz defense is very good but you're all in for a rude awakening....specially when we play the Cats..your offense revolves around Prokup and him running the ball and than taking his shots....he wont be running around much on this Griz D with the speed we have at linebacker!

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:16 pm

BadlandsGrizFan wrote:
catatac wrote:
77matcat wrote:Yup. They appear to have a tool or surgical device that allows them to reach far up within the confines of their rectum and pull out wins. Two weeks ago blocking a winning field goal and scoring themselves is great example.

Not sure of their mode but is more than plan ol luck and heaven knows its can't be heavenly assistance (frequently I've suspected satanic assistance).

Seriously, I do believe that we should have a sports phycologist on the payroll because we seem to find ways to lose games the second half of the year faster than griz find ways to pull them out of the deep recesses of their behind.

With that said, hope my perceptions are just that mine only and we pluck a multitude of wins from the jaws of defeat ourselves.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CP, Sac, EWU, and MSU are all better teams than UND, Davis, and South Dakota... so we'll see what happens. Those are four high powered offenses, and as most of us predicted, Davis just showed that the UM defense isn't quite as dominant as most Griz fans thought. These four teams are going to put up some serious points against the Griz, we'll see if the Griz O can keep up. I have my doubts.
Wrong again my friend, usually when a really good offense faces off against a really good defense, it doesn't just jack up the score and force said defensive team to score a ton of points, generally the offensive power is brought down to earth a little...and I know Cat fans hate to recognize that this Griz defense is very good but you're all in for a rude awakening....specially when we play the Cats..your offense revolves around Prokup and him running the ball and than taking his shots....he wont be running around much on this Griz D with the speed we have at linebacker!

I've said all along that the Griz D is pretty good this year. As good as most Griz fans are claiming? Nope. I've been saying all season long that starting with the UCD game, the Griz defensive numbers\will start to climb, and that's exactly what's happening. In fact, I didn't even think USC would put up 28, I was thinking that one would be around 20. Those four teams I mentioned above are going to score a lot of points on you. As for Prukop against the Griz... I'm so excited about that one that I can barely wait.

91catAlum · Post by **91catAlum** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:47 pm

BadlandsGrizFan wrote:
catatac wrote:
77matcat wrote:Yup. They appear to have a tool or surgical device that allows them to reach far up within the confines of their rectum and pull out wins. Two weeks ago blocking a winning field goal and scoring themselves is great example.

Not sure of their mode but is more than plan ol luck and heaven knows its can't be heavenly assistance (frequently I've suspected satanic assistance).

Seriously, I do believe that we should have a sports phycologist on the payroll because we seem to find ways to lose games the second half of the year faster than griz find ways to pull them out of the deep recesses of their behind.

With that said, hope my perceptions are just that mine only and we pluck a multitude of wins from the jaws of defeat ourselves.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CP, Sac, EWU, and MSU are all better teams than UND, Davis, and South Dakota... so we'll see what happens. Those are four high powered offenses, and as most of us predicted, Davis just showed that the UM defense isn't quite as dominant as most Griz fans thought. These four teams are going to put up some serious points against the Griz, we'll see if the Griz O can keep up. I have my doubts.
Wrong again my friend, usually when a really good offense faces off against a really good defense, it doesn't just jack up the score and force said defensive team to score a ton of points, generally the offensive power is brought down to earth a little...and I know Cat fans hate to recognize that this Griz defense is very good but you're all in for a rude awakening....specially when we play the Cats..your offense revolves around Prokup and him running the ball and than taking his shots....he wont be running around much on this Griz D with the speed we have at linebacker!

Win or lose, the griz's defensive stats will not be nearly as good after they play Sac, EWU, and the Cats. Wouldn't you agree with that?

onceacat · Post by **onceacat** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:19 pm

Here's some food for thought looking at these common foes: on 3rd down, UM has been way better at making stops. (Opponents are 7-28 vs um and 13-33 vs MSU). BUT um has been awful on 4th down defense (opponents are 4-6 on 4th). When you combine 3rd & 4th down tries, both cat & grizz defenses allow conversions at 39% (UCD &UND only had 1 total 4th down try against the cats).

For further consideration, the vaunted Grizz D held these two offenses to a total of 12 fewer points (6 per game), despite both UND & UCD being down by 2+ TDs for the entire game. My guess is that these two teams had AT LEAST 5 more possessions in which to score those 12 points. In other words, at least against these two teams, MSU may well give up fewer points per drive. I'll have to dig deeper into that.

Finally, against these common opponents, MSU has 4 takeaways (although the one at the end of Davis was a bad call) vs. 3 for the griz.

You can spin these a lot of different ways. I think just from watching, the grizz look like a better D, but in a lot of very important ways (% of stops & turnovers) the cats certainly look reasonable.

FWIW, the cats held ewoo to 4-12 on third, but gave up 4th down conversions twice. Just for some perspective.

onceacat · Post by **onceacat** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:33 pm

OK, I couldn't let it rest. Using the drive charts on espn.go I looked at points per drive or possession. Espn does a couple of weird things, like counting Flores pick-6 as a possession, or a TD return as a possession, but you can get a rough idea. Against UCD & UND only, the cats gave up just under 2 points per possession. The griz gave up just under 1.8.

In the MSU-EWU game, both teams were scoring (giving up) 3.25 points per possession.

If the griz can hold ewu to under 3 points per possession, we should all be impressed. If not...

Robert Martin · Post by **Robert Martin** » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:00 am

BadlandsGrizFan wrote:
catatac wrote:
77matcat wrote:Yup. They appear to have a tool or surgical device that allows them to reach far up within the confines of their rectum and pull out wins. Two weeks ago blocking a winning field goal and scoring themselves is great example.

Not sure of their mode but is more than plan ol luck and heaven knows its can't be heavenly assistance (frequently I've suspected satanic assistance).

Seriously, I do believe that we should have a sports phycologist on the payroll because we seem to find ways to lose games the second half of the year faster than griz find ways to pull them out of the deep recesses of their behind.

With that said, hope my perceptions are just that mine only and we pluck a multitude of wins from the jaws of defeat ourselves.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CP, Sac, EWU, and MSU are all better teams than UND, Davis, and South Dakota... so we'll see what happens. Those are four high powered offenses, and as most of us predicted, Davis just showed that the UM defense isn't quite as dominant as most Griz fans thought. These four teams are going to put up some serious points against the Griz, we'll see if the Griz O can keep up. I have my doubts.
Wrong again my friend, usually when a really good offense faces off against a really good defense, it doesn't just jack up the score and force said defensive team to score a ton of points, generally the offensive power is brought down to earth a little...and I know Cat fans hate to recognize that this Griz defense is very good but you're all in for a rude awakening....specially when we play the Cats..your offense revolves around Prokup and him running the ball and than taking his shots....he wont be running around much on this Griz D with the speed we have at linebacker!

Good read. http://www.footballperspective.com/scor ... -the-game/

"None of this should be shocking, but there’s utility in precision. We know that Peyton Manning makes an offense great, and I think most fans know that offense “matters more” than defense. This just helps us try to define what “more” means."

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