cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

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cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by msu_agfan » Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:55 am

this is an interesting analysis, they put this game closer than most I have read lately.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1438635.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Montana State (0-0) at Arkansas State (0-0) Aug. 30, 7:00 ESPN3

Here's The Deal: Can Blake Anderson be the next great Arkansas State head coach? While it’ll be easy to look ahead to the chance at a big, splashy win over Tennessee next week, Montana State is no pushover. The Bobcats won seven games last season and almost pulled off an upset over SMU. With four home games to follow, MSU has a chance to get off to a hot start with a good performance, while Arkansas State will try to come up with its tenth-straight win in a home opener.

Why Montana State Might Win: Even with some key replacements at major spots, the Bobcat offense should be able to keep up the pace. This should once again be a balanced and efficient attack that could take advantage of a reloading ASU defensive front. This is a smart, disciplined team that won’t beat itself – penalties were a major problem for Arkansas State last year.

Why Arkansas State Might Win: Can Montana State get its passing game going? It was a battle for the starting quarterback job up until mid-August when Dakota Prukop was finally named the main man. The ASU pass defense was a positive last season, and now it should be a brick wall with all four starters back. If the Red Wolves can keep the MSU running game in check, they should be able to get the D off the field without a problem.

Who To Watch Out For: It’s still an audition for the Arkansas State quarterback situation. Fredi Knighten is the main man going into the year, but he needs to be solid and effective throwing the ball. Running isn’t a problem – he’s a dangerous, quick option who’ll make things happen on the move – but he needs to be able to hit the home run now and then. With Tennessee up next, if he isn’t great, this could be an interesting week of practice.

What’s Going To Happen: Montana State is good and will provide a fight, but the ASU offense will shine in Anderson’s first game. Knighten will be excellent and the passing game will work. The difference will be the Red Wolf pass defense that’ll come up with just enough big plays to pull off the home win – but it’ll be a fight.
Prediction: Arkansas State 31 … Montana State 27


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by Walk-on » Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:25 am

Wow. Not a single word about our defense. If our offense can move the ball well enough to score 27 points, I like our chances. Our defense should be very formidable and can lead us to a win, if they don't have to play 75% of the time.


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by Weltercat » Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:56 am

I completely agree with walkon. If we score 27 points we win this game. I think this game is going to be all defense for both teams.


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by catsrback76 » Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:07 am

Weltercat wrote:I completely agree with walkon. If we score 27 points we win this game. I think this game is going to be all defense for both teams.
Agreed! If the O is firing so will the D-- we win!



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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by arkstfan » Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:33 am

Weltercat wrote:I completely agree with walkon. If we score 27 points we win this game. I think this game is going to be all defense for both teams.
I will be surprised if 27 points can win the game.
We played spread option in six games last year. The first game back in the offense South Al held us to 17 (we won) and Ball State held us to 23 in the bowl game, with Kennedy going out hurt (we won) but even with those two low scoring games we averaged 31 points per game out of the spread.

While we in Harsin's spread the field vertically offense in the first seven games we were held under 30 points in four (however the two SEC divisonal champs were two of those teams, and Sun Belt co-champ UL was one as well).

For comparison. Spread option under Malzahn we scored 30 or more in 10 of 13 games (Nebraska, WKY, and #25 Kent State and we won the Kent game). Spread option under Freeze we scored under 30 five times (Illinois, Va.Tech, WKY we won, ULM we won, and Northern Illinois in the bowl).

So low scoring isn't a high probability. That's not to say with the question marks we have upfront on defense and down two LB's that you aren't going to score a lot as well.

My largest worry for this game is we don't have anyone who has ever attempted a FG or PAT in a game, and no one who has ever deep snapped in a game. If this thing is close a special teams gaffe could put the Bobcats into a position of holding an advantage. Likewise, I'm very happy with our a return teams are shaping up.

I think if the Bobcats win, the nudge over the top comes from special teams and likewise if AState were to blow it open like some of our more optimistic fans believe, it will be a special team's play that does it.



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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by catgrad05 » Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:44 pm

arkstfan wrote:
Weltercat wrote:I completely agree with walkon. If we score 27 points we win this game. I think this game is going to be all defense for both teams.
I will be surprised if 27 points can win the game.
We played spread option in six games last year. The first game back in the offense South Al held us to 17 (we won) and Ball State held us to 23 in the bowl game, with Kennedy going out hurt (we won) but even with those two low scoring games we averaged 31 points per game out of the spread.

While we in Harsin's spread the field vertically offense in the first seven games we were held under 30 points in four (however the two SEC divisonal champs were two of those teams, and Sun Belt co-champ UL was one as well).

For comparison. Spread option under Malzahn we scored 30 or more in 10 of 13 games (Nebraska, WKY, and #25 Kent State and we won the Kent game). Spread option under Freeze we scored under 30 five times (Illinois, Va.Tech, WKY we won, ULM we won, and Northern Illinois in the bowl).

So low scoring isn't a high probability. That's not to say with the question marks we have upfront on defense and down two LB's that you aren't going to score a lot as well.

My largest worry for this game is we don't have anyone who has ever attempted a FG or PAT in a game, and no one who has ever deep snapped in a game. If this thing is close a special teams gaffe could put the Bobcats into a position of holding an advantage. Likewise, I'm very happy with our a return teams are shaping up.

I think if the Bobcats win, the nudge over the top comes from special teams and likewise if AState were to blow it open like some of our more optimistic fans believe, it will be a special team's play that does it.

I love how every ARK poster has said we did this that and the other thing when Malzahn was here. He was two coaches ago, are you guys just trying to get us to believe that that is what you will be running again? I just don't get the argument and how it pertains to this weekends game. No smack intended it just doesn't make sense.

I think both teams will be in for a dog fight and if its close I really like our defense being able to get the win for us.



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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by Counter Assault » Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:54 pm

I echo, I would lean toward a W if we actually put up 27 points. My prediction is L 24-42 and it won't be that close until the end. The speed on this team has to be incredible, their recruiting is picking up the 2 star SEC players.



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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by catatac » Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:03 pm

Counter Assault wrote:I echo, I would lean toward a W if we actually put up 27 points. My prediction is L 24-42 and it won't be that close until the end. The speed on this team has to be incredible, their recruiting is picking up the 2 star SEC players.
Did you read Colter's latest article? If you did I'd be very surprised if you're still predicting a blowout after knowing what the attitudes of the players and coaches are coming into this game.


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by tdub » Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:06 pm

Counter Assault wrote:I echo, I would lean toward a W if we actually put up 27 points. My prediction is L 24-42 and it won't be that close until the end. The speed on this team has to be incredible, their recruiting is picking up the 2 star SEC players.
Image

Put up 27 we win....put up 24 we get blown out. Hmmmmmmmm...


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by Weltercat » Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:52 pm

arkstfan wrote: I will be surprised if 27 points can win the game.
We played spread option in six games last year. The first game back in the offense South Al held us to 17 (we won) and Ball State held us to 23 in the bowl game, with Kennedy going out hurt (we won) but even with those two low scoring games we averaged 31 points per game out of the spread.

While we in Harsin's spread the field vertically offense in the first seven games we were held under 30 points in four (however the two SEC divisonal champs were two of those teams, and Sun Belt co-champ UL was one as well).

For comparison. Spread option under Malzahn we scored 30 or more in 10 of 13 games (Nebraska, WKY, and #25 Kent State and we won the Kent game). Spread option under Freeze we scored under 30 five times (Illinois, Va.Tech, WKY we won, ULM we won, and Northern Illinois in the bowl).

So low scoring isn't a high probability. That's not to say with the question marks we have upfront on defense and down two LB's that you aren't going to score a lot as well.

My largest worry for this game is we don't have anyone who has ever attempted a FG or PAT in a game, and no one who has ever deep snapped in a game. If this thing is close a special teams gaffe could put the Bobcats into a position of holding an advantage. Likewise, I'm very happy with our a return teams are shaping up.

I think if the Bobcats win, the nudge over the top comes from special teams and likewise if AState were to blow it open like some of our more optimistic fans believe, it will be a special team's play that does it.
You may very well be right but we're pretty confident that we have a good defense like we usually do. That doesn't mean they don't get lit up once in a while and I fully expect EWU to come to bozeman and score 40+ against the cats... But in this game, I expect the cats to play like they did in the early season last year, in our playup game against SMU the cats dominated SMU most of the game.
I wont be surprised either way, I really shouldn't say anything because I don't know much about ASU or their spread offense but our D looks damn good on paper.


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by Counter Assault » Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:50 pm

tdub wrote:
Counter Assault wrote:I echo, I would lean toward a W if we actually put up 27 points. My prediction is L 24-42 and it won't be that close until the end. The speed on this team has to be incredible, their recruiting is picking up the 2 star SEC players.
Image

Put up 27 we win....put up 24 we get blown out. Hmmmmmmmm...
Just think about it harder and you will get there. By they way, I don't think 24-42 is a blowout against this team. I really do think this is like playing a teir-2 SEC team. Like Florida was last year.



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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by catatac » Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:24 pm

42 to 24 is pretty much a blowout, especially if we got to 24 with some late garbage time TD's, as you suggest. You should read Colter's articles... FYI. :D


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by CARDIAC_CATS » Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:54 pm

Speaking of EW, If you are the Cats which offense would you rather face? ASU or EW?

Our team is pretty injury free right now so I like our chances this week since we are fresh and it is the first game of the season. Throw in some rain and you never know on that either. It should be a fun game and I bet we are ready to play!

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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by Counter Assault » Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:20 pm

I subscribe to and read Colters articles - thanks.



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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by catatac » Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:07 am

Counter Assault wrote:I subscribe to and read Colters articles - thanks.
Sorry... I re read my last post and I sounded pretty condescending there. Didn't mean to be.

It's always tough to predict what's going to happen when we jump up and play FBS teams. I didn't expect us to pretty much dominate WSU and SMU for the majority of those two games... and then lose by one point. I also didn't expect the beat down we took playing K State. I do think we're going to compete pretty well on Saturday however. Here's to hoping I'm right!


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by catscat » Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:32 am

catatac wrote:
Counter Assault wrote:I subscribe to and read Colters articles - thanks.
Sorry... I re read my last post and I sounded pretty condescending there. Didn't mean to be.

It's always tough to predict what's going to happen when we jump up and play FBS teams. I didn't expect us to pretty much dominate WSU and SMU for the majority of those two games... and then lose by one point. I also didn't expect the beat down we took playing K State. I do think we're going to compete pretty well on Saturday however. Here's to hoping I'm right!
I thought we played pretty well against Utah. Made mistakes in the first quarter that cost us - played them pretty even the rest of the way. If we make those type mistakes again, we're toast. If we don't, maybe the outcome is more SMU and WSU and we have a chance to win (and/or, the game is ours to lose).


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by catatac » Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:40 am

catscat wrote:
catatac wrote:
Counter Assault wrote:I subscribe to and read Colters articles - thanks.
Sorry... I re read my last post and I sounded pretty condescending there. Didn't mean to be.

It's always tough to predict what's going to happen when we jump up and play FBS teams. I didn't expect us to pretty much dominate WSU and SMU for the majority of those two games... and then lose by one point. I also didn't expect the beat down we took playing K State. I do think we're going to compete pretty well on Saturday however. Here's to hoping I'm right!
I thought we played pretty well against Utah. Made mistakes in the first quarter that cost us - played them pretty even the rest of the way. If we make those type mistakes again, we're toast. If we don't, maybe the outcome is more SMU and WSU and we have a chance to win (and/or, the game is ours to lose).
Ya, I was thinking of the Utah game, as well as the Michigan State game. Made mistakes in both of those or they could have been a lot better. The K State game was a total melt down in mistakes made.


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by Counter Assault » Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:28 pm

catatac wrote:
Counter Assault wrote:I subscribe to and read Colters articles - thanks.
Sorry... I re read my last post and I sounded pretty condescending there. Didn't mean to be.

It's always tough to predict what's going to happen when we jump up and play FBS teams. I didn't expect us to pretty much dominate WSU and SMU for the majority of those two games... and then lose by one point. I also didn't expect the beat down we took playing K State. I do think we're going to compete pretty well on Saturday however. Here's to hoping I'm right!
No big. I always aim low and hopefully, pleasantly surprised. We are breaking in a brand new QB and pretty dang new center. That is a pretty critical set of players. I am as hopeful and excited about the Bobcats talent this year, but I think any of these teams down near the SEC play SUPER fast. The recruiting base is ridiculous compared to any team west of the Mississippi. Guys that have serious speed at every single position. If we hang with these guys, I think its a win. If we actually were to win this game, I think we could have serious shot at the BCS and deep playoffs.



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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by Bobcat Sig » Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:45 am

Counter Assault wrote:
catatac wrote:
Counter Assault wrote:I subscribe to and read Colters articles - thanks.
Sorry... I re read my last post and I sounded pretty condescending there. Didn't mean to be.

It's always tough to predict what's going to happen when we jump up and play FBS teams. I didn't expect us to pretty much dominate WSU and SMU for the majority of those two games... and then lose by one point. I also didn't expect the beat down we took playing K State. I do think we're going to compete pretty well on Saturday however. Here's to hoping I'm right!
No big. I always aim low and hopefully, pleasantly surprised. We are breaking in a brand new QB and pretty dang new center. That is a pretty critical set of players. I am as hopeful and excited about the Bobcats talent this year, but I think any of these teams down near the SEC play SUPER fast. The recruiting base is ridiculous compared to any team west of the Mississippi. Guys that have serious speed at every single position. If we hang with these guys, I think its a win. If we actually were to win this game, I think we could have serious shot at the BCS and deep playoffs.
I think you mean BSC...


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Re: cfn.com prediction of Arkansas State game

Post by [cat_bracket] » Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:13 am

Counter Assault wrote:
catatac wrote:
Counter Assault wrote:I subscribe to and read Colters articles - thanks.
Sorry... I re read my last post and I sounded pretty condescending there. Didn't mean to be.

It's always tough to predict what's going to happen when we jump up and play FBS teams. I didn't expect us to pretty much dominate WSU and SMU for the majority of those two games... and then lose by one point. I also didn't expect the beat down we took playing K State. I do think we're going to compete pretty well on Saturday however. Here's to hoping I'm right!
No big. I always aim low and hopefully, pleasantly surprised. We are breaking in a brand new QB and pretty dang new center. That is a pretty critical set of players. I am as hopeful and excited about the Bobcats talent this year, but I think any of these teams down near the SEC play SUPER fast. The recruiting base is ridiculous compared to any team west of the Mississippi. Guys that have serious speed at every single position. If we hang with these guys, I think its a win. If we actually were to win this game, I think we could have serious shot at the BCS and deep playoffs.
We'll have a tough time winning even if we're at the top of our game and they play poorly.
Mostly I want to win, but after that I'm looking for focus and discipline, which equates to low turnovers and low penalties. We don't need to march all over the field, but we need to be able to sustain some drives. We don't need to shut them out, but we need to force a handful of punts. Asu is good. Better than the SMU, utah, Wazzu teams we've played.



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