2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
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- CelticCat
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2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
I thought I'd check to see how our defense stacks up number-wise from last year to this year..
For averages I've included Cat/Griz last year because there is no way I'm going to recalculate all of those numbers. However for totals, I excluded Cat/Griz totals so we can compare where we were last year heading into the game versus where we are this year heading into the game.
2016 / 2017 (- is worse than last year, + is better)
Scoring Defense
25.1 / 25.2 (-.1)
Total Defense
388.6 / 403.4 (-14.8 )
Rushing Defense
145.9 / 172.6 (-26.7)
Pass Defense
242.7 / 230.8 (+11.9)
Pass Efficiency Defense
123.1 / 127.6 (-4.5)
Interceptions (entering Cat/Griz in 2016)
9 / 4 (-5)
Fumbles Recovered
8 / 6 (-2)
Sacks (entering Cat/Griz in 2016)
14 / 16 (+2)
Opp 1st Down
20.5 / 23.1 (-2.6)
Opp 3rd Down %
32.1% / 50.3% (-18.2)
Red Zone Defense %
80.5% / 81.1 (-.6)
It's always hard to compare stats year over year because there are a lot of variables, but generally they give a decent indicator of where you are at.
It's pretty clear from these numbers that we haven't really improved in any one area, except for sacks, but have actually gotten much worse in some areas - even less turnovers created (10 versus 17 last year), and our 3rd down defense has gone from good (3rd in the conference in 2016) to horrendous (122nd out of 123 nationally).
I think it's pretty clear while the end result has been the same, in PPG, we are a worse defense than we were last year. And we lose some of our best players to graduation.
Is it a talent problem, or is this a product of how Gregorak coaches? Bend but don't break doesn't create many turnovers.
For averages I've included Cat/Griz last year because there is no way I'm going to recalculate all of those numbers. However for totals, I excluded Cat/Griz totals so we can compare where we were last year heading into the game versus where we are this year heading into the game.
2016 / 2017 (- is worse than last year, + is better)
Scoring Defense
25.1 / 25.2 (-.1)
Total Defense
388.6 / 403.4 (-14.8 )
Rushing Defense
145.9 / 172.6 (-26.7)
Pass Defense
242.7 / 230.8 (+11.9)
Pass Efficiency Defense
123.1 / 127.6 (-4.5)
Interceptions (entering Cat/Griz in 2016)
9 / 4 (-5)
Fumbles Recovered
8 / 6 (-2)
Sacks (entering Cat/Griz in 2016)
14 / 16 (+2)
Opp 1st Down
20.5 / 23.1 (-2.6)
Opp 3rd Down %
32.1% / 50.3% (-18.2)
Red Zone Defense %
80.5% / 81.1 (-.6)
It's always hard to compare stats year over year because there are a lot of variables, but generally they give a decent indicator of where you are at.
It's pretty clear from these numbers that we haven't really improved in any one area, except for sacks, but have actually gotten much worse in some areas - even less turnovers created (10 versus 17 last year), and our 3rd down defense has gone from good (3rd in the conference in 2016) to horrendous (122nd out of 123 nationally).
I think it's pretty clear while the end result has been the same, in PPG, we are a worse defense than we were last year. And we lose some of our best players to graduation.
Is it a talent problem, or is this a product of how Gregorak coaches? Bend but don't break doesn't create many turnovers.
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- cats2506
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
You need to add in strength of schedule or something to show the quality of the offenses that we played.
PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.
- LTown Cat
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
I could be wrong but it sure seemed like TG's defenses at UM forced a lot of turnovers??
- catatac
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Absolutely. Much more difficult schedule this year.cats2506 wrote:You need to add in strength of schedule or something to show the quality of the offenses that we played.
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- VimSince03
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Over the past three years, MSU has lacked a true pass rush from its front four. Turnovers and a pass rush go together. Until MSU can recruit and/or develop some dudes to get after the passer, turnovers will continue to be low in my opinion. Overall, I like what I've seen from our defense. Nowhere near the dumpster fire that was the 2014-2015 units.
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
If these numbers include Bryant and Western Oregon, I don't think they are comparable. You'd have to do just conference games.
- CelticCat
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Well unfortunately the Big Sky archived stats for 2016 aren't available. I agree and that's what I meant by variables.
Does that really explain the drastic different in 3rd down % though?
Does that really explain the drastic different in 3rd down % though?
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- BleedingBLue
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Not really. We have been bad all year, but the Wazzu game really didn't help.CelticCat wrote:Well unfortunately the Big Sky archived stats for 2016 aren't available. I agree and that's what I meant by variables.
Does that really explain the drastic different in 3rd down % though?
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- Golden Bobcat
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Ya third down looks bad. I'd say it's due to lack of a consistent pass rusher on longer third downs ( throwing downs) but we really didn't have that last year either. Who knows.CelticCat wrote:Well unfortunately the Big Sky archived stats for 2016 aren't available. I agree and that's what I meant by variables.
Does that really explain the drastic different in 3rd down % though?
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Stats can't lie, so, interpreting the games as a whole is left to the observer. Overall, the interior d-line play has improved, seemingly each game, with more stops by Yates and company. Would like to see more qb pressure from them but that is where all good defense starts. The one telling stat not listed is first downs by penalty. That, above all other stats, is what has hurt this year's D.
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
They had more talent too.LTown Cat wrote:I could be wrong but it sure seemed like TG's defenses at UM forced a lot of turnovers??
- AlphaGriz1
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Wrong, his defense does exactly what yours is doing, never getting off the field on 3rd down and waiting game after game for the opposing team to make a mistake which they rarely do so you give up points and lose close games. If you need a stop to win a game..........I am still waiting for the 1st time I have seen a Gregorek D do that.LTown Cat wrote:I could be wrong but it sure seemed like TG's defenses at UM forced a lot of turnovers??
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- Cledus
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Yes they are. Go to the Big Sky Conference’s site and there are archived and prior years stats going back several years.CelticCat wrote:Well unfortunately the Big Sky archived stats for 2016 aren't available. I agree and that's what I meant by variables.
Does that really explain the drastic different in 3rd down % though?
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- Cledus
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
UM is the university equivalent of Axe Body Spray and essential oils.
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- 1st Team All-BobcatNation
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Ironically, the Cougar game was one the best defensive performances of the season. WSU played 'tough-ball" for 60 minutes and got off 73 plays vs. the CATS 44. I thought we had a great game plan and really forced the Cougs to take what we gave them. They did put up 31 points, but compared to:BleedingBLue wrote:Not really. We have been bad all year, but the Wazzu game really didn't help.CelticCat wrote:Well unfortunately the Big Sky archived stats for 2016 aren't available. I agree and that's what I meant by variables.
Does that really explain the drastic different in 3rd down % though?
Boise State-47, Oregon State-52, Nevada-45, USC-30, Oregon-33, Colorado-28, Arizona State-37, Stanford-24, Utah-33. Only Cal shut the Cougs completely down-3.
So I'm still into comparing defenses pre-Choate vs. post-Choate and I really like how things are coming along. Teams always lose some of their best guys each year, but I think the Bobcats will continue to make progress next year based on the guys coming back.
- BleedingBLue
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
But they were 72% on 3rd down.Mr Lisle wrote:Ironically, the Cougar game was one the best defensive performances of the season. WSU played 'tough-ball" for 60 minutes and got off 73 plays vs. the CATS 44. I thought we had a great game plan and really forced the Cougs to take what we gave them. They did put up 31 points, but compared to:BleedingBLue wrote:Not really. We have been bad all year, but the Wazzu game really didn't help.CelticCat wrote:Well unfortunately the Big Sky archived stats for 2016 aren't available. I agree and that's what I meant by variables.
Does that really explain the drastic different in 3rd down % though?
Boise State-47, Oregon State-52, Nevada-45, USC-30, Oregon-33, Colorado-28, Arizona State-37, Stanford-24, Utah-33. Only Cal shut the Cougs completely down-3.
So I'm still into comparing defenses pre-Choate vs. post-Choate and I really like how things are coming along. Teams always lose some of their best guys each year, but I think the Bobcats will continue to make progress next year based on the guys coming back.
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- BobcatNation Redshirt
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Re: 2016 Defense vs 2017 Defense
Well....you got your wish!!AlphaGriz1 wrote:Wrong, his defense does exactly what yours is doing, never getting off the field on 3rd down and waiting game after game for the opposing team to make a mistake which they rarely do so you give up points and lose close games. If you need a stop to win a game..........I am still waiting for the 1st time I have seen a Gregorek D do that.LTown Cat wrote:I could be wrong but it sure seemed like TG's defenses at UM forced a lot of turnovers??