Assessment of the Big Sky Race

[Catprint]

Assessment of the Big Sky Race

This post is a follow on to grizband’s 2017 FSC Playoff At Large Eligibility. Great detail work on his part. My post is designed to stir up more discussion and is designed to be somewhat predictive of the Big Sky Race but not playoff positions per se.

I was thinking about the Cats chances of getting into the playoffs so I wanted to assess the playoff race and Big Sky race from a somewhat numerical view without having to delve into complex statistics. What struck me yesterday was that there are 6 teams at the half way point with 1 or fewer losses. I certainly don’t recall this many teams at this point in the season at the top of the stack. However, that is a topic for another discussion.

My next thought was to look at how well each team did in the first half of conference play and how tough of a schedule they have for the rest of the year. So I built a simple system. It is NOT a strength of schedule system (but does take that into account); it is NOT just wins/losses (but it takes those into account) and it does not take into account statistical factors like yards per game, margin of victory, etc. (although it gives credit for close losses).

I built two metrics – one for games played and one for the rest of the season. I intentionally left off ALL non-conference games regardless of quality of opponent. I wanted to look only at how teams have done in the conference and infer the difficulty of their remaining games. So in that regard, it is not a predictor of whether a team will be selected for the playoffs, only where they might end up in the Big Sky race.

I noticed there were clearly three groupings in the Big Sky. First, there are the teams at the top with 1 or 0 conference losses. As I mentioned, there are six teams in this group (EWU, NAU, UM, SSU, SUU, WSU). At the other end is 5 teams with 0 or 1 conference wins (Cal Poly, UC Davis, UNC, UND, PSU). Finally, I put ISU and MSU in a middle group – teams with at least 2 wins but more than 1 loss. I realize this middle group is arbitrary but I liked it because I am a Cat fan and we play ISU next week and it fit my nice chart!

Here are the guidelines for the two charts

Past Games.........................Points earned
Your Opponents Group ------3 (Low)----2 (Mid)----1 (Best)
How well did you play
Bad Loss........................0............1...........3
Close Loss......................1............3...........5
Win..............................2............4...........6

o Max of 6 points, min of 0 if you lost badly to a Group 3 team (no Group 1 or 2 team did)
o You got points based on the group you played (where they are now!) and how well you did.
o A close lose to a Group 1 team was worth more than a win against a Group 2 or 3 team.
o A loss to a Group 1 or Group 2 team was still worth something to give teams credit for their strength of schedule and not paying a lower end team.
o Your teams final SSWL (strength of schedule/Win-Loss) score is your total points divided by the number of games played.

Future Games.... Schedule Difficulty Points
Group 1 Away...............5
Group 1 Home..............4
Group 2 Away...............3
Group 2 Home..............2
Group 3 Home/Away.......1

o Five-point system
o Points based on what group your opponent is in today and whether you are home or away.
o Group 3 games don’t get any more points for away games because every Group 1/2 team should win those games.

So here are the results of my “scientific” scoring and prediction system.

Chart One – Past Games SSWL (strength of schedule/Win-Loss) score

Week----------------------FOUR (9/23)-----FIVE (9/30)----SIX (10/7)-------SEVEN (10/14)------EIGHT (10/21)-------Total Score------SSWL Score
Group 1 ( 1 loss or less)
Eastern (4-1)-------------UM----6-----------SAC-----6-------UCD---2-----------MSU---4--------------SUU---5---------------23----------------4.60
SUU (3-1).................SAC---3-----------BYE--------------Cal----2-----------WSU---6-------------EWU---6---------------17----------------4.25
SAC (3-1)-----------------SUU---6-----------EWU---3---------BYE---------------ISU----4--------------UND---2---------------15----------------3.75
Griz (3-1)----------------EWU---3-----------PSU----2---------ISU---4-----------UND---2-------------BYE---------------------11----------------2.75
Weber (3-1)-------------UCD----2-----------MSU---4---------BYE---------------SUU---3-------------CAL----2----------------11----------------2.75
NAU (4-0)----------------CAL----2-----------UNC---2---------NON-CONF-------PSU---2-------------UCD---2-----------------8-----------------2.00

Group 2 (2 wins, more than 1 loss)
Cats----------------------UND---2-----------WSU---5---------PSU---2-----------EWU---5-------------UNC---2----------------16----------------3.20
ISU-----------------------UNC---1------------CAL---2---------UM----5-----------SAC---3--------------PSU---2-----------------13----------------2.60


Chart Two - Future Games (based on strength of schedule)

Future......Week 9 (10/28)........Week 10 (11/4).......Week 11 (11/11)......Week 12 (11/18)......Total Score.............Ave Per Game
Group 1
Eastern.......bye........................4.........................1.......................1........................6..........................2
SUU...........1...........................1.........................1.......................4........................7..........................1.75
SAC............5..........................1.........................1.......................1........................8..........................2
Griz...........5...........................4........................1........................3.......................13.........................3.25
Weber.........4 ..........................5........................1........................2.......................12.........................3
NAU...........4...........................5........................2........................5.......................16.........................4

Group 2
Cats...........2.....................NON-CONF...................5.......................4........................11.........................3.66
ISU............3...........................1.......................bye .....................5........................9..........................3

Observations:
• NAU had an unbelievably easy path through the first half of the year playing no one with a winning record.
• Eastern has the best score for the first half of the year even after their loss to SUU. They have beaten more top BSC teams than anyone else.
• The Griz’s score for the first half reflects their relatively easy schedule
• The Cats are right in the middle of the group with a 3.2 score. Perhaps I am giving the Cats more credit for close losses than maybe is reasonable
Future Games
• NAU has the toughest schedule the second half and seems highly unlikely they can win out. If they do, they clearly deserve it.
• Southern Utah and SAC State both have very easy schedules coming up and each only play one team with a winning record (Each play NAU). They are surprise teams that almost no one put in the top of the Big Sky.
• Griz and Weber have a tough schedule and they play each other.
• Cats have second toughest schedule left next to NAU
• Even if the Cats win out, there are likely to be 3 or 4 teams ahead of us in the standings making it tough to be selected as at-large
• A two loss BSC champion is unlikely this year but so is an 8-0 team.

Final Thoughts
• Big Sky might have 5 teams in the Top 25 come Monday morning
• Pretty big assumption that no Group 3 Teams will win any games against Group 1. Seems upsets still possible.
• The conference tie breakers could be very, very interesting this year. It is possible there will be 3 teams with one loss or 3-4 teams with two losses at the top of the standings.
• How many from the BSC can go into the playoffs? Maybe only four given the strength of the MVFC and CAA.
• Past performance is no indicator of future but there certainly have been surprises in conference play and a pattern is developing.
• I think the numbers say EWU and NAU tie to win the conference and one of SUU/SAC and UM/Weber get in playoffs. 4 total.

So this is my first thread ever, so go easy on me! I have lived in Bozeman for 50 years and have over a dozen kids, brothers, son-in-laws, etc. who are MSU grads or attending MSU now. SO I am a true fan but one who likes to have numbers to support my opinion. I have my assumptions with these numbers and certainly this little exercise has its limitations. Give me your thoughts!

[GoldstoneCat]

I like the way you broke this down, and I've modified my own views a little based on SUU's performance of late. I thought if we could win out, with our schedule, we would be in at 7-4. Still think that, but I'm less certain given the logjam just above us. 7-4 and 4th place prolly gets us there, 7-4 in 5th maybe doesn't. Good analysis. It'll be interesting to watch UM now that their schedule heats up a bit. I've been impressed so far with Jensen, and if he can take that show on the road against Weber and over here they'll certainly have earned it.

[JDoub]

If we win out, we'd deserve to be in the discussion, but likely will still be left out.

I know we CAN win out, but we have good teams remaining on the schedule. NAU at Walkup is always a tough place, especially now that Sours announced his retirement after this season. Kennesaw State is 6-1 and beat a decent Liberty team that beat Baylor. If KSU does win the Big South and we beat them, that adds to our resume for at-large.

Our outside chances at an at-large selection might just come down to Cat-griz (again)

We really blew it with Weber and EWU -- two games we really could have won. As well as the South Dakota State loss, shoulda-coulda, that will hurt us as they have now lost to YSU and UNI.

Very glad to see the win in Greeley -- a place that has been cursed for the Bobcats.

What if we DO win out and get lucky to make an at-large bid -- we'd likely play a first round against a MVFC mid-pack team or maybe a San Diego Toreros? ... and then NDSU or MVFC champ?? I do think with the make-up of this Bobcat team we'd have a better chance against a Missouri Valley team than in past years, that would be interesting. It could be a re-match with SDSU, and I like our chances if that happens.

[Cledus]

Some years back there was a YouTubes video with the athletic director for Northern Iowa who discussed the selection process. At the time he was on the committee.

The one thing that sticks in my memory is him saying as a significant criterion is, "Who do you NOT want to play right now?" for when they're evaluating at-large bids.

If the Cats can win out, I believe we fit that bill. When you throw out FBS opponents the Cats have played three teams with a winning record. By the same token, the jiz only have one opponent with a winning record (EWU).

The only team left on our schedule without a winning record is Idaho State, and they're .500 right now.

[CelticCat]

If Sac State beats NAU next week, they have NoCo, Poly and UCD left. UCD is a big rivalry game so anything goes there, but there is a more than decent chance that Sac could finish 8-3, 7-1 in conference play. That's crazy talk.

What a logjam. It will be an interested few weeks. NAU/Sac and UM/Weber are the two big games this weekend.

[technoCat]

I just have to think if we win out that we will make it in. I find it highly unlikely that NAU will win the rest of their games if we beat them. We would have to be over the Griz if we beat them. I don't believe that both SAC and SUU will beat NAU and our SOS should be better than theirs. When it really comes down to it. Our SOS has to be light years ahead of most of these teams. We really had a murderer's row to run this year. If we are on a 5 game winning streak going into the playoffs, I don't know how we don't make it in.

[Sotallytober]

100% agree: we win out and we're in at 7-4. Easier said than done, however.

[Mtcatfan]

Will they factor in the fact that we can probably get 15,000 fans to show up if they give us an opening home game?

[CelticCat]

I just have to think if we win out that we will make it in. I find it highly unlikely that NAU will win the rest of their games if we beat them. We would have to be over the Griz if we beat them. I don't believe that both SAC and SUU will beat NAU and our SOS should be better than theirs. When it really comes down to it. Our SOS has to be light years ahead of most of these teams. We really had a murderer's row to run this year. If we are on a 5 game winning streak going into the playoffs, I don't know how we don't make it in.

Well according to Sagarin, if I'm reading it correctly, our strength of schedule is 131st, while Montana's is 203rd. Out of 254.

NAU is 148th, Weber is 140th, SUU is 130th, EWU is 127th.

UM has by far and away the weakest SOS ranking in the Big Sky, but anyone could've told you that.

Kennesaw State is 237th, even at 6-1.

[BleedingBLue]

If we win out, we'd deserve to be in the discussion, but likely will still be left out.

I know we CAN win out, but we have good teams remaining on the schedule. NAU at Walkup is always a tough place, especially now that Sours announced his retirement after this season. Kennesaw State is 6-1 and beat a decent Liberty team that beat Baylor. If KSU does win the Big South and we beat them, that adds to our resume for at-large.

Our outside chances at an at-large selection might just come down to Cat-griz (again)

We really blew it with Weber and EWU -- two games we really could have won. As well as the South Dakota State loss, shoulda-coulda, that will hurt us as they have now lost to YSU and UNI.

Very glad to see the win in Greeley -- a place that has been cursed for the Bobcats.

What if we DO win out and get lucky to make an at-large bid -- we'd likely play a first round against a MVFC mid-pack team or maybe a San Diego Toreros? ... and then NDSU or MVFC champ?? I do think with the make-up of this Bobcat team we'd have a better chance against a Missouri Valley team than in past years, that would be interesting. It could be a re-match with SDSU, and I like our chances if that happens.

I don't think Kennesaw is anything special. The Big South is not great. Liberty beat Baylor, who is 0-7. That's like saying ISUs win over Nevada is a huge accomplishment at this point, which it's not. KSU lost to Samford (5-2) who's a decent team in a traditional 1 or 2 bid conference. Beat Tenn Tech (0-7), Alabama State (1-5), DII N Greenville by a score of 38-34. TX Southern (0-6), and Gardner Webb (1-6). Most were close games too. We should win that game.

[mtdoc]

If Sac State beats NAU next week, they have NoCo, Poly and UCD left. UCD is a big rivalry game so anything goes there, but there is a more than decent chance that Sac could finish 8-3, 7-1 in conference play. That's crazy talk.

What a logjam. It will be an interested few weeks. NAU/Sac and UM/Weber are the two big games this weekend.

I can't see Sac State keeping it close at Flagstaff.

[Catprint]

Further thoughts - If Cats win out (difficult task), NAU has at least one loss and Griz have two. I assume Griz would be out due to our stronger schedule and their loss to us but they could still be 8-3 and that would get them in. Assume they lose to Weber, now that leaves five teams ahead of us. Let's put Sac out as they lose to NAU and UCD (possible). Now Cats are 7-4 and EWU (wins out), NAU (wins 3 of 4 - beats Griz), SUU (wins 3, loses to NAU) and Weber( loses to EWU but wins other 3) are all ahead in BSC standings and all would have only 3 losses. This is scenario where Cats win out; are 7-4 and don't get in. No way BSC is going to get five playoff teams and even four is not a given because of strength of MVFC and CAA. So the win out scenario does not guarantee us in but only keeps us in the conversation. At least three teams have to collapse if we win out - Griz, Sac and one more. I don't know who that would be. Not SUU-way too easy of a schedule. I think NAU is a possible choice - maybe Griz beat them. But this means Griz good enough to beat NAU but not us or Weber. I think the numbers show that it will be very difficult for Cats to sit at #4 in conference when we are #7 right now. Lets hope some teams can be up and down and beat each other up. Or maybe a lower team will rise to the occasion and beat someone this year.

Polls have UM at 24, SUU at 25 and NAU at 26 and Weber at 27. Weber wins and drops 4 spots? Not sure all that is meaningful. I mean Youngstown State is 3-4 and ranked 21st and two of their wins are against Robert Morris and Central Conn. Seems like MVFC (6 rated teams with UNI at 28th) is still held in much higher regard than BSC. I think the polls need a couple of more weeks to settle out.

[catatac]

Further thoughts - If Cats win out (difficult task), NAU has at least one loss and Griz have two. I assume Griz would be out due to our stronger schedule and their loss to us but they could still be 8-3 and that would get them in. Assume they lose to Weber, now that leaves five teams ahead of us. Let's put Sac out as they lose to NAU and UCD (possible). Now Cats are 7-4 and EWU (wins out), NAU (wins 3 of 4 - beats Griz), SUU (wins 3, loses to NAU) and Weber( loses to EWU but wins other 3) are all ahead in BSC standings and all would have only 3 losses. This is scenario where Cats win out; are 7-4 and don't get in. No way BSC is going to get five playoff teams and even four is not a given because of strength of MVFC and CAA. So the win out scenario does not guarantee us in but only keeps us in the conversation. At least three teams have to collapse if we win out - Griz, Sac and one more. I don't know who that would be. Not SUU-way too easy of a schedule. I think NAU is a possible choice - maybe Griz beat them. But this means Griz good enough to beat NAU but not us or Weber. I think the numbers show that it will be very difficult for Cats to sit at #4 in conference when we are #7 right now. Lets hope some teams can be up and down and beat each other up. Or maybe a lower team will rise to the occasion and beat someone this year.

Polls have UM at 24, SUU at 25 and NAU at 26 and Weber at 27. Weber wins and drops 4 spots? Not sure all that is meaningful. I mean Youngstown State is 3-4 and ranked 21st and two of their wins are against Robert Morris and Central Conn. Seems like MVFC (6 rated teams with UNI at 28th) is still held in much higher regard than BSC. I think the polls need a couple of more weeks to settle out.

Wow, that's a lot of working through the scenarios! Admittedly you've thought through this more than I have but what I can say is, like many others, I don't have a lot of confidence in us winning out but one can always hope. If that were to happen however, it would mean that we are very likely in over the Griz because they would very likely be 7-4 (I don't see them beating Weber AND NAU, not happening). If that means we are the 4th team making it in from the Big Sky based on how the other scenarios play out, so be it. We're not being kept our of a 24 team playoff field at 7-4 with 7 D1 wins, riding a 5 game winning streak, with our SOS, being ranked in the top 20.

[LTown Cat]

Further thoughts - If Cats win out (difficult task), NAU has at least one loss and Griz have two. I assume Griz would be out due to our stronger schedule and their loss to us but they could still be 8-3 and that would get them in. Assume they lose to Weber, now that leaves five teams ahead of us. Let's put Sac out as they lose to NAU and UCD (possible). Now Cats are 7-4 and EWU (wins out), NAU (wins 3 of 4 - beats Griz), SUU (wins 3, loses to NAU) and Weber( loses to EWU but wins other 3) are all ahead in BSC standings and all would have only 3 losses. This is scenario where Cats win out; are 7-4 and don't get in. No way BSC is going to get five playoff teams and even four is not a given because of strength of MVFC and CAA. So the win out scenario does not guarantee us in but only keeps us in the conversation. At least three teams have to collapse if we win out - Griz, Sac and one more. I don't know who that would be. Not SUU-way too easy of a schedule. I think NAU is a possible choice - maybe Griz beat them. But this means Griz good enough to beat NAU but not us or Weber. I think the numbers show that it will be very difficult for Cats to sit at #4 in conference when we are #7 right now. Lets hope some teams can be up and down and beat each other up. Or maybe a lower team will rise to the occasion and beat someone this year.

Polls have UM at 24, SUU at 25 and NAU at 26 and Weber at 27. Weber wins and drops 4 spots? Not sure all that is meaningful. I mean Youngstown State is 3-4 and ranked 21st and two of their wins are against Robert Morris and Central Conn. Seems like MVFC (6 rated teams with UNI at 28th) is still held in much higher regard than BSC. I think the polls need a couple of more weeks to settle out.

Wow, that's a lot of working through the scenarios! Admittedly you've thought through this more than I have but what I can say is, like many others, I don't have a lot of confidence in us winning out but one can always hope. If that were to happen however, it would mean that we are very likely in over the Griz because they would very likely be 7-4 (I don't see them beating Weber AND NAU, not happening). If that means we are the 4th team making it in from the Big Sky based on how the other scenarios play out, so be it. We're not being kept our of a 24 team playoff field at 7-4 with 7 D1 wins, riding a 5 game winning streak, with our SOS, being ranked in the top 20.

And a head-to-head win over them...

[DriscollCat]

Not to be the downer, and I'm usually the optimistic one, but all of these scenarios hinge on beating NAU in Flagstaff.

I could see us doing that, but we would have to take a big step that I've been waiting about a full year for. I would say realistically, their current team would beat our current team 4 times out of 5 in Flag.

What chances do you guys give us in that particular game?

[technoCat]

Not to be the downer, and I'm usually the optimistic one, but all of these scenarios hinge on beating NAU in Flagstaff.

I could see us doing that, but we would have to take a big step that I've been waiting about a full year for. I would say realistically, their current team would beat our current team 4 times out of 5 in Flag.

What chances do you guys give us in that particular game?

I give us a 33% chance to win AT THIS POINT. We absolutely can beat them but yes we need to not beat ourselves. So far we haven't proven we can do that against the "good" teams. But we have 2 games to try to put it together.

[CelticCat]

Not to be the downer, and I'm usually the optimistic one, but all of these scenarios hinge on beating NAU in Flagstaff.

I could see us doing that, but we would have to take a big step that I've been waiting about a full year for. I would say realistically, their current team would beat our current team 4 times out of 5 in Flag.

What chances do you guys give us in that particular game?

Well there's no wind in the stadium so maybe we throw the ball 25 times.

[Buckaroo Bonzi]

Not to be the downer, and I'm usually the optimistic one, but all of these scenarios hinge on beating NAU in Flagstaff.

I could see us doing that, but we would have to take a big step that I've been waiting about a full year for. I would say realistically, their current team would beat our current team 4 times out of 5 in Flag.

What chances do you guys give us in that particular game?

Huge challenge- that would be a signature win - crazier things have happened though - we did win
In Wagrizz last year when very very very few thought we could.

[60's Cat]

How sweet it was!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[onceacat]

Not to be the downer, and I'm usually the optimistic one, but all of these scenarios hinge on beating NAU in Flagstaff.

I could see us doing that, but we would have to take a big step that I've been waiting about a full year for. I would say realistically, their current team would beat our current team 4 times out of 5 in Flag.

What chances do you guys give us in that particular game?

Huge challenge- that would be a signature win - crazier things have happened though - we did win
In Wagrizz last year when very very very few thought we could.

Flag is the best homefield advantage in all of college sports, maybe in all of sports period. Its at 7,000 feet, which means even the Bobcats who play at 4,500 are gasping for air. Even bad NAU teams go 4-1 or 5-0 at home. WaGriss is nothing compared to home field in Flag.