2016 Class AA Playoffs (Quarterfinals)

[VimSince03]

Playoff Bracket: http://assets.ngin.com/attachments/docu ... ket-AA.pdf

Top-side of Bracket

Missoula Big Sky (5-5) at Billings Senior (10-0) - 7:00 PM, Friday, 11/4

Missoula Big Sky Key Players: QB Levi Janacaro, RB Kadin Lahti, OL David Hann, WR/DB Nick Wakai, OL/DE Colton Keintz, RB/LB Hunter Dutton, RB/MLB Tyler Fink, DE Charlie Maurer, WR Josh Malone

Billings Senior Key Players: WR/DB Gabe Sulser, WR/FS Keaton Anderson, QB Nate Dick, WR/DB Jake Orvis, OLB/SS Kevon Jackson, TE/SS Max Clarke, OT/DE Luke Poetzl, OL/DE Emmit Bartsch, FB/OLB Blake Allred, RB/MLB Nolan Askelson, WR Ben LaBeau, OT/DE Cullen Roll, DT Hayden Hegg

The winner of this one plays the winner of Helena at Bozeman. Big Sky comes in as the #8 seed and Senior the #1 seed. Big Sky brings an option rushing attack led by QB Levi Janacaro (who led AA in rushing this year) and RB Kadin Lahti. The biggest receiving threat for the Eagles is Nick Wakai who also mixes in with the run game on sweeps. They have two big lineman in David Hann and Colton Keintz who open up holes in the ground game. On the Billings Senior side, they are absolutely loaded. It all starts with QB Nate Dick who runs the Broncs' read-option attack exceptionally well along with Nolan Askelson in the backfield. He has a talented stable of receivers with perennial All-Stater Gabe Sulser, Jake Orvis, and Keaton Anderson. Senior has a athletic, veteran offensive line compossed of LT Luke Poetzl, LG's Sam Saur or Connor Black, C Noah Casares, RG Emmit Bartsch, and RT Cullen Roll. All five are seniors and all five play very physical with Poetzl being the most talented. Senior might be even better on defense as Keaton Anderson runs the show from his free safety position. The defensive line is all seniors compossed of DE Luke Poetzl, DT Cullen Roll, DT Hayden Hegg, and DE Emmit Bartsch. The linebackers are all juniors composed of SS/OLB Kevon Jackson, OLB Blake Allred, and MLB Nolan Askelson. Anderson is joined in the secondary by defensive backs Jake Orvis and Gabe Sulser along with SS Max Clarke. The entire team is fast and they play physical every game. The Broncs closest margin of victory was a 30-13 win over CMR where they played awful in the first half. When a 17-point victory is your worst game, you have a very talented team. Senior's highest point output of the regular season? A 62-20 win over Missoula Big Sky. If Big Sky can execute their "control-the-clock" gameplan, they have a shot but they don't matchup with Senior at all on defense. Senior will get their points in this game and Big Sky will simply not be able to keep up. Prediction: Senior wins 48-8.

Helena High (7-3) at Bozeman (8-2) - 7:00 PM, Friday, 11/4

Helena High Key Players: FB/MLB Kendall Johnson, QB Kaleb Winterburn, WR/DB Derrick Olsen, RB Ryan Arntson, WR/DB Keair Adgerson, TE/DE Taylor England, TE Max Morris, FS Emmett Buckley, OT/DL Daniel Stockton, OLB Conner Nash, OL/DT Chauncey Flemings

Bozeman Key Players: TE/OLB Cade Wessel, QB Callahan O'Reilly, WR/DB Lance McCutcheon, K Connor Coles, WR Logan Kleinhans, CB Lucas Lilly, SS Andrew Keim, RB Finn Vaughankraska, WR Bailey Paddock, OT Bridger Lohman, OT Morgan Hostetler, MLB Brandon Cooper

The winner of this one plays the winner of Missoula Big Sky at Billings Senior. Helena comes in as the #5 seed and Bozeman the #4 seed. The Bengals ride the legs of RB Ryan Arntson who led AA in rush attempts and was near the top in yards. The senior has scored 26 total touchdowns in 2016 (24 rushing). QB Kaleb Winterburn has been inconsistent through the air (has improved throughout his junior season) but can make things happen when targeting WR Derrick Olsen. TE/DE Taylor England went down early in the season with an injury (returned to action last week) and it hurt Helena's production in both the pass and run game. However, TE Max Morris is one of the better juniors in the state and he had a decent season. Helena has some top talent on the defensive side of the ball. MLB Kendall Johnson is arguably the #1 linebacker in the state this year and should get consideration for AA Defensive Player of the Year. The Bengal secondary is strong with defensive backs Keair Adgerson and Derrick Olsen. For Bozeman, they are led by QB Callahan O'Reilly and he produces throwing or running the ball. He is a Top 4 QB in the state, he runs hard, and has a cannon. His favorite receiver is 6'3", 190 lb. Lance McCutcheon along with other good ones in Bailey Paddock and Logan Kleinhans. They have two good offensive tackles in Bridger Lohman and Morgan Hostetler. TE/OLB Cade Wessel is one of the better overall players in Montana and arguably their best overall player along with O'Reilly and McCutcheon. They have a solid secondary also led by McCutcheon at defensive back. However, Bozeman's interior of their offensive line and defensive line is much weaker than years past. I think Kendall Johnson could have a field day on blitzes up the middle (one of his specialties). The Hawk defense is not the best at stopping the run and usually its because the other team beats them up physically. Also, O'Reilly is their only true rushing threat as Finn Vaughankraska and Jack Tetrault aren't in the same league as ex-Hawks Balue Chapman and Trace Bradshaw. I really think Helena High has a good chance of winning this game as Helena's strength (pounding the rock) is Bozeman's weakness (stopping the run). I also think that Derrick Olsen is a terrific matchup for Lance McCutcheon because of his height. Really, Bozeman might actually be the best matchup Helena could have hoped for in the first round in a competitive field of eight teams in AA. This one will come down to who can set the tempo. Will it be Helena's methodical ground game? Or will it be Bozeman's dual-threat, big-play attack led by O'Reilly. If Helena sets the tone physically, Bozeman is going to wear down like they did against Senior and Arntson will control the game. If Bozeman gets up early and gets some stops on defense while flustering Kaleb Winterburn, Helena's defense has shown a tendency to wear out and give up big plays. Prediction: Helena wins 36-35.

Bottom-side of Bracket

Helena Capital (6-4) at Billings West (8-2) - 1:00 PM, Saturday, 11/5

Helena Capital Key Players: OLB Marcus Welnel, OL Carson Shuman, OL/DL Conor Quick, QB Carter Pappas, RB/OLB Seth Schneider, WR/FS Kellan Elder, TE/DE Matt Culpon, DT Alaric Greil, DE Justin Jenks, RB Payton Pappas, OL Trevor Welnel, DE/OLB Caelan Cummings, WR Mackenzie Duncan

Billings West Key Players: QB Bryson Deming, TE/OLB Braydon Deming, WR/DB Chaz Maddock, MLB Mitchell Porter, RB Caleb Nelson, WR Jesse Owens, DE Cleveland Harvey, OL Brydan Anderson, OL/DE Ethan Kirby, RB Andy Garcia

The winner of this one plays the winner of Missoula Sentinel at Kalispell Glacier. Helena Capital comes in as the #6 seed and Billings West the #3 seed. On offense, West is led by twin brothers Bryson (QB) and Braydon Deming (TE) as well as WR Chaz Maddock, RB Caleb Nelson, and WR Jesse Owens. On defense, the Bears are anchored by OLB Braydon Deming, DE Ethan Kirby, DB Chaz Maddock, MLB Mitchell Porter, and DE Cleveland Harvey. West surprised a few people this year by earning the #3 seed in the playoffs. Deming wasn't as impressive as some of the other QB's in AA but he made several clutch plays with his feet or throwing the ball. For example, the Golden Bears first win this year came against Helena Capital where Bryson hit Jesse Owens for a go-ahead touchdown with :13 seconds left. West's two losses on the year were a 47-10 setback to Senior and a 28-21 loss to Helena High last week. Braydon Deming is one of the top five players in the state and makes plays on offense and defense. Overall, West has a decent defense with some good linebackers and defensive ends that can corral QB's like Mitch Roberts of Sentinel or Kevin Boes of Great Falls. For Helena Capital, Coach Mihelish has perhaps the best overall defense in AA. Up front, they are led by DE Justin Jenks, DT Conor Quick, DT Alaric Greil, and DE/OLB Caelan Cummings. At linebacker, they are led by OLB Marcus Welnel, OLB Seth Schneider, and MLB Kory Broussard. Their secondary leader is FS Kellen Elder. On offense, QB Carter Pappas runs the show. The Bruins have three junior offensive lineman in Conor Quick (6'2", 275 lbs.), Carson Shuman (6'4", 275 lbs.), and Trevor Welnel (6'3", 250 lbs.) that make up a physically imposing unit. They block for a tough, hard-nosed running back in Seth Schnieder as well as RB Payton Pappas. Carter runs the ball as well. TE Matt Culpon and FB/TE Marcus Welnel also block well for the run game and Welnel is a threat in the pass game. Capital started the year with the toughest schedule in AA playing the top four seeds in the playoffs in their first four games (Hellgate was a forfeit win). They lost all four of those games but mostly because they couldn't generate any offense. The Bruin defense can play with anybody but the team's struggles mostly come from not being able to generate a passing attack when teams load up and force them to pass. Carter Pappas has improved on this and is playing his best football at QB right now heading into the playoffs. I think West can also play with anyone as the Deming brothers are one of the toughtest duo's to stop in AA. Prediction: Capital wins 21-14.

Missoula Sentinel (6-4) at Kalispell Glacier (9-1) - 7:00 PM, Friday, 11/4

Missoula Sentinel Key Players: QB Mitch Roberts, WR Nick Germer, RB Conner Crawford, TE/DE Ethan Jones, WR/OLB Brandon Morley, MLB Trevor Duvall, WR/SS Hunter Paulson, MLB Spencer Schock, OL/DL Ryan Findley, OL/DL Kenyon Kinsella, RB/DB Caden Messer, DE Connor Rauckhorst, WR/OLB Ezra Weida

Kalispell Glacier Key Players: QB Tadan Gilman, OT/DE Jaxen Hashley, RB Drew Turner, WR/FS Jackson Pepe, SS Seth Anderson, RB/OLB Cole Crosby, FS Sam Barber, WR Scout Willcut, TE/MLB Patrick O'Connell, MLB Hunter Rauthe, OL Kellen Bemis, OL/DE Bryce Grame

The winner of this one plays the winner of Helena Capital at Billings West. Missoula Sentinel comes in as the #7 seed and Kalispell Glacier the #2 seed. Sentinel is led by one of the best dual-threat QB's in AA in Mitch Roberts. The Griz commit is a big-play threat every time he touches the ball. He is joined in the backfield by one of the better RB's in AA in Conner Crawford as well as RB Caden Messer. Roberts' favorite targets in the passing game are WR/TE Ethan Jones and WR Nick Germer. Brandon Morley and Ezra Weida also get some targets at WR. The Spartans are big up front on the offensive line as senior offensive guards Ryan Findley and Kenyon Kinsella are up over 300 lbs. On defense, they have some good linebackers in Trevor Duvall and Spencer Schock, two good DE/OLB-types in Ethan Jones and Connor Rauckhorst, and a good safety in Hunter Paulson. For Glacier, they are led by another one of the best dual-threat QB's in AA in Tadan Gilman. Gilman was an All-State OLB for the past two years at Glacier before moving solely to QB for his senior season. With Gilman at QB, the offense has been explosive as ever. Junior RB Drew Turner might be the best running back in the state and the receiving trio of TE Patrick O'Connell, WR Jackson Pepe, and WR Scout Willcut make up unit that can score at a rapid pace. Jaxen Hashley made the transition from TE to LT almost seamlessly and has had an All-State season on both sides of the ball (despite an injury that kept him out a few games). With junior Cody Hartsoch at RT, the Wolfpack have two 6'5", 260 lb. mountains at the two tackle spots. However, the Wolfpack's defense has felt Gilman's absence a lot during 2016. They are led by Hashley at DE, O'Connell at MLB, and Pepe at FS. Whether it's talent or depth, the Wolfpack defense gave up 45 to Bozeman and 62 to Missoula Sentinel but still won both games because of their offense. They are playing better down the stretch getting Hashley back was huge for the defense going into the playoffs. Roberts had an incredible game when these two last played in Missoula. Since this one is at Glacier and the Spartans have kind of limped into the playoffs, I see Glacier winning this one. Prediction: Glacier wins 38-21.

[Bemiller49]

Gilman is just a shocker to me. To be that outstanding on defense then just getting thrown into QB and doing what he has. Just impressive. Wonder if he misses defense?

[PapaG]

Vim just wanted to note that you do a hell of a job of covering Montana HS football. Being out of state but a former Billings West Golden Bear it's fun following your AA coverage as well as your in-state recruiting evaluations.

Well done and O appreciate it!

[grizpack]

Kinsela and Paulson are both out for the year for Sentinel.

And thanks for the great work this football season Vim!

[VimSince03]

Kinsela and Paulson are both out for the year for Sentinel.

And thanks for the great work this football season Vim!

Noted. Thanks grizpack!