Class AA Football outlook 2011

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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby CPACAT on Wed Oct 19, 2011 11:59 am

Having watched all of the top teams play I think Capital beats Helena HIgh and you end up with 3 teams at 7-1. You could also end up with a 4-6 team making the playoffs this year.
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby 91catAlum on Wed Oct 19, 2011 1:36 pm

The Helena/Capital game should be a great one this year...

I'm having a hard time deciding if I should go to MSU/ISU or stick around here for crosstown... I hate that they are the same day!

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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby CPACAT on Wed Oct 19, 2011 3:29 pm

Just did an analysis of the AA playoffs

Helena High, Helena Capital, Billings West, Glacier are in

Senior most likely in-

Butte and Missoula Big Sky at4-4 Butte has HHS and Sentinel should go 1-1. Big Sky has West and Glacier- Should go 0-2

CMR, GFHS, and Flathead all at 3-5 CMR has Flathead and GFHS. Win 2 and in. GFHS has Senior and CMR while Flathead has CMR and Hellgate.

Big game this weekend will be CMR @ Flathead. Next Weekend CMR @ GFH and Sententel at Butte.

It is possible to have 5 teams at 4-6 at the end of the year to fit into 3 play off spots.
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Re: Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby 91catAlum on Wed Oct 19, 2011 3:46 pm

CPACAT wrote:It is possible to have 5 teams at 4-6 at the end of the year to fit into 3 play off spots.


What's the tiebreaker in high school if this happens?

Thanks for the analysis BTW!

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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby CPACAT on Wed Oct 19, 2011 4:28 pm

I am not sure of the tie breaking rules on this. The MHSA handbook says it is the resposibility of the AA conference to set the tie breakers. One tie breaker I believe is how you faired against teams with a higher in the final standings. With that I think Butte would be in with their win over Senior. If it were record against teams with the same record I think CMR would be in as they would be 3-1 against the teams they would be tied with. I will try and find out the tie breaker tonight.
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby barechestcat on Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:38 am

CPACAT- Are there any scenarios that would allow Bozeman to be a consideration? They play Senior next weekend and, with a win, would be 4-6 with wins over Butte, Flathead, Senior.

I was planning on doing some review of this later in the weekend. But, I thought I'd see what your calculations were saying.

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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby 91catAlum on Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:39 am

If West wins out, and capital beats HHS next weekend, there will be an interesting situation: three 9-1 teams at the top who are all 1-1 against each other. I'm curious to know how the 1-3 seeds would go.

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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby MontanaFootballFan on Sun Oct 23, 2011 12:06 pm

I think the 4 of the top 5 Teams will win: My Predictions (This is my Best Bet)
1. Helena High 10-0
2. Billings West 9-1
3. Helena Capital 8-2
4. Glacier 8-2
5. Billings Senior 7-3
6. Butte 5-5
7. Great Falls Russell 5-5
8. Flathead 4-6
9. Missoula Big Sky 4-6
10. Bozeman 3-7
11. Great Falls High 3-7
12. Billings Skyview 2-8
13. Missoula Sentinel 1-9
14. Missoula Hellgate 1-9

Or more a more Complicated Standing like this could happen but is Rare:

1. Helena High 9-1
2. Helena Capita; 9-1
3. Billings West 9-1
4. Glacier 8-2
5. Billings Senior 6-4 Lose to Bozeman
6. Butte 4-6
7. Great Falls Russell 4-6 Lose to Great F alls
8. Flathead 4-6
9. Bozeman 4-6 Beat Senior
10. Great Falls High 4-6
11. Missoula Big Sky 4-6
12. Billings sky view 2-8
13. Missoula Sentinel 1-9
14. Missoula Hellgate 1-9

Of Course there are different ways you can do the standings
Another:
1. Helena High 9-1
2. Capital 9-1
3. West 9-1
4. Billings senior 7-3
5. Glacier 7-3
6. Butte 5-5
7. Great Falls Russell 5-5
8. Flathead 4-6
9. Bozeman 4-6
10. Big sky 4-6
11. Great Falls 3-7
12. Skyview 2-8
13 Sentinel 1-9 .
14. Hellgate 1-9
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby stevo on Wed Oct 26, 2011 10:13 am

The Billings Gazette breaks down the AA playoff picture.

http://billingsgazette.com/sports/high- ... 03286.html
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby Hawks86 on Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:40 am

So your saying there is a chance ? =D^


Anybody notice the sophomore rising star playing WR for the Hawks with the last name of Dissly. Does he play B-ball ?
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby barechestcat on Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:21 pm

Hawks86 wrote:So your saying there is a chance ? =D^


Anybody notice the sophomore rising star playing WR for the Hawks with the last name of Dissly. Does he play B-ball ?



Yes- his older brother played bball for the bobcats. I don't know his skill level as I haven't seen him play. But, he's a talented athlete.

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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby catamaran on Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:24 pm

barechestcat wrote:
Hawks86 wrote:So your saying there is a chance ? =D^


Anybody notice the sophomore rising star playing WR for the Hawks with the last name of Dissly. Does he play B-ball ?



Yes- his older brother played bball for the bobcats. I don't know his skill level as I haven't seen him play. But, he's a talented athlete.

i watched him last week and he's every bit the fb player nick was at this point. He had 3 td's against missoula and two of them were great catches
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby barechestcat on Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:27 pm

So, Bozeman needs CMR to beat Great Falls High and Butte to beat Big Sky along with needing to beat Senior. Right?

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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby MontanaFootballFan on Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:33 pm

According to The Inter lake Bozeman is eliminated from the playoffs.

Big sky plays Glacier and Senior plays Bozeman this week.


October 27, 2011
Bozeman
Billings Senior



October 28, 2011
Billings Skyview
Billings West

Great Falls CMR
Great Falls

Helena
Helena Capital

Kalispell Flathead
Missoula Hellgate

Missoula Big Sky
Kalispell Glacier

Missoula Sentinel
Butte
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby catamaran on Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:59 pm

barechestcat wrote:So, Bozeman needs CMR to beat Great Falls High and Butte to beat Big Sky along with needing to beat Senior. Right?

mathmatically GFH needs to beat CMR don't they
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby CPACAT on Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:09 pm

Playoff time.

I was glad CMR got Helena High. Not because I don't respect Helena High but because I think CMR matches up better with them and I know they are kind of beat up physically.

CMR has won 4 of their last 6 and actually played pretty good against Helena High and West in their two losses.

Unfortunately they play the same time as the Cats play Weber.
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby CPACAT on Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:29 am

Anyone have thoughts on the CMR/ Helena High game?

I had heard that Helena has had some kids pretty banged up. CMR is coming in pretty healthy.

The is a match up of the Master and the Student. Tony played for Jack back in the day and you see a lot of similiarities between the two programs.

Last time Helena won 28-7. CMR was beat in the parking lot. They came out flat and made mistakes on both sides of the ball. They have corrected a lot of those and I think it is a much closer game this time.
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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby 91catAlum on Sat Nov 12, 2011 10:19 am

Heading to the HHS/Capital game today. Weather could be nasty (supposed to get very windy this afternoon).

Should be a great game, I think capital is playing better football lately and will beat Helena for the 2nd time this year.

West had no problems with Glacier last night...

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Re: Class AA Football outlook 2011

Postby 91catAlum on Sat Nov 12, 2011 4:55 pm

Wow, capital's defense was absolutely dominant today. I don't think helena high had a first down until the 3rd quarter (other than by penalty). I'd bet they had no more than 4 the whole game.

And because of that, Capital's offense had a short field all day. They definitely looked like a championship team today.

Caleb Kidder was a beast for them today. Too bad the griz signed him, he's a good one.

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